Hospitality Deal Flow in 2026: Key Investment Trends Shaping the Industry | Rod Clough

Описание: Hospitality deal flow in 2026 is shaped by occupancy stabilization, ADR pressure, renovation economics, and a persistent buy–sell expectation gap. At 1TourismWorld, Rod Clough, President – Americas at HVS, joins this session hosted by Glenn Tyranski of 1BusinessWorld to provide a data-driven overview of where the U.S. hotel industry stands and what must occur for transaction velocity to accelerate.

Rod walks through national performance trends, investment dynamics, renovation realities, and capital market conditions — outlining why deal flow has remained subdued despite improving fundamentals.

Key themes from this session include:

• Why occupancy declined in 2025 and why HVS forecasts a modest rebound in 2026
• The impact of international travel pullback, federal travel reductions, tariffs, and uncertainty
• How convention center closures, Las Vegas trends, LA fire impacts, and San Francisco recovery affect performance
• The role of the World Cup and major events in supporting ADR growth
• Current cap rate ranges (8%–8.5% average) and when lower or higher caps are justified
• Why renovation costs ($25K–$60K+ per key) are influencing underwriting and slowing transactions
• How rising insurance, property taxes, labor pressure, and cost of debt affect NOI projections
• Why economy extended stay is currently the most active investment segment
• What owners should do now to prepare assets for sale and maximize valuation

Rod emphasizes that assets with strong GOP margins, recent renovations, proper positioning, and realistic underwriting assumptions are the properties attracting multiple offers in today’s environment.

Chapters
00:00 Opening and conference context
01:20 Introduction of Rod Clough and session topic
02:25 National occupancy trends and 2026 outlook
03:21 Why occupancy declined in 2025
07:05 Why 2026 may stabilize
10:03 Convention cycle, Las Vegas, LA, and San Francisco dynamics
11:37 World Cup impact on occupancy and ADR
14:38 Best and worst performing markets
15:30 Segment performance: luxury vs economy
17:05 Cap rate environment and valuation ranges
18:20 When lower cap rates are justified
19:28 When higher cap rates make sense
21:00 Transaction activity slowdown explained
22:45 Renovation costs and PIP realities
25:30 Labor and cost pressures
28:35 Interest rates and cost of debt impact
30:00 Price per key and transaction trends
32:00 What must happen for deal flow to accelerate
33:40 Preparing assets for sale
35:15 GOP benchmarks by segment
38:00 Q&A discussion
49:55 Extended stay segment strength

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