Forecast Discussion - March 3, 2026 - Multi-Day Severe Weather Stretch to Begin March

Описание: For educational purposes only. If you live in the affected areas, please stay tuned to your local National Weather Service office for the most accurate and up-to-date information.

A multi-day stretch of severe weather is expected to begin tonight, ramping up tomorrow and especially Thursday and Friday across the central and southern US. Multiple storm systems are forecast to traverse the region, allowing for a prolonged period of severe weather.

Tonight, mostly elevated convection may develop north of a frontal zone, posing a risk for isolated large hail.

On Wednesday, that same frontal zone and the first of two upper-level troughs will provide the impetus for widespread strong to severe storms from the Ohio Valley to Texas. Stronger wind profiles but a more messy storm mode may lead to clustered/linear convection posing a risk for mainly damaging winds and a few tornadoes with northward extent, while weaker deep-layer shear but weaker forcing for ascent may lead to more isolated but more multicellular convection with southward extent, yielding more of a large hail and damaging wind risk.

Thursday could provide multiple rounds of strong to severe storms across the southern Plains. Model discrepancy and some conditionality remains, but supercells with an all-hazards risk are possible.

Friday may feature the most widespread severe threat of any of the upcoming days in this stretch, as the second upper-level trough ejects into the central US. Supercells with an all-hazards threat are possible from the central Plains/Midwest down into the southern Plains.

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Chapters

0:00 Introduction, risk areas
7:42 Current data analysis
11:20 Model analysis begins
11:41 Discussion of Wednesday's setup
22:31 Discussion of Thursday's setup
39:32 Discussion of Friday's & Saturday's setups
48:43 Possible continuation of the active pattern next week
50:14 Wrap-up

4:39 Discussion of today's setup
23:16 Discussion of tomorrow's setup
30:07 Discussion of Monday/Tuesday setups
33:01 Wrap-up