September 15th, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

Описание: Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (15 Sept 2025)


Intro:
Today’s episode covers key developments across FX, commodities, global trade, and geopolitics that are shaping markets as we start the week.


FX & Central Banks

• Dollar steady into a big central-bank week, with the FOMC decision Wednesday the main event.
• ECB tone hawkish: Nagel and Kocher signal rate cuts are done or nearly done; euro marginally softer.
• BOE in focus: Rate hold at 4% widely expected; QT guidance may drive GBP reaction.
• JPY under mild pressure: LDP leadership race adds political risk premium; USD/JPY lower in thin Tokyo trade.
• CNY fix stronger than expected (7.1056) — supports Asian FX despite weak Chinese data.
• South Korea in FX swap talks with US to mitigate market volatility from US investment package.

Commodities

• Crude oil firm: US threatens tougher sanctions on Russia and urges Europe to stop buying Russian oil.
• Iraq signs joint operations deal with TotalEnergies & QatarEnergy LNG.
• Egypt inks USD 121mn oil & gas exploration deals across key basins.
• Ecuador to end diesel subsidy, redirecting funds to social programs.
• Gold capped below 3,660 ahead of FOMC; dovish Fed could trigger breakout toward 3,700–3,800.
• Copper edges up but upside capped by weak Chinese activity data.

Trade & Tariffs

• US–China talks resume in Madrid on TikTok and trade; limited progress on tariffs/fentanyl lowers odds of Beijing summit.
• China launches antidumping and anti-discrimination probes into US chip measures.
• US adds 32 entities (23 from China) to restricted trade list.
• TikTok deadline: Trump may extend operating deadline as negotiations continue.
• US–UK rushing deals on nuclear, AI data centres, whisky ahead of Trump state visit and signing a “ground-breaking” tech pact.

Geopolitics


Russia–Ukraine:

• Trump signals willingness to impose sanctions once NATO unified; NATO to place 50–100% tariffs on China until war ends.
• G7 exploring use of frozen Russian assets for Ukraine funding.
• Ukraine confirms thwarting Russian offensive in Sumy; strikes Kirishi oil refinery.
• Poland & Romania scramble jets after drone threats/incursions.

Middle East:

• Israel’s strike in Qatar heightens tension; Hamas suspends hostage talks.
• Qatar vows to continue Gaza mediation with Egypt & US.
• Iran warns EU snapback sanctions could end nuclear monitoring cooperation.

Indo-Pacific:

• US, Japan, Philippines complete maritime drills in South China Sea.
• China warns Philippines to stop “provocations” and continues naval patrols.
• South Korea’s foreign minister to visit China, Xi visit under discussion.
• Australia & China to hold high-level talks this week.

Americas:

• Venezuela protests US Navy boarding of tuna vessel in its EEZ, calls it a security threat for Caribbean stability.

Europe – Policy & Politics

• Fitch downgrades France to A+ (Stable); Portugal & Spain upgraded.
• German CDU wins NRW elections; AfD triples support.
• UK policy: VAT cut on energy bills floated; ＞GBP 1.25bn in US FDI announced; ＞GBP 1.1bn joint maritime sector investment.

China Macro

• August data weak: Industrial output 5.2% (vs 5.7%), retail sales 3.4% (vs 3.9%), unemployment up to 5.3%.
• Authorities pledge more support for consumption, jobs, and property sector.

Wrap-Up:
This week’s drivers: FOMC guidance for USD, BOE QT calibration for GBP, China data and policy pledges for Asia FX, and escalating trade/geopolitical tensions shaping crude and gold.