August 21st, London Update: Global Markets and Geopolitical Briefing

Описание: Show Notes – Market & News Briefing (August 21, 2025)


In this episode, we cover the latest updates across FX, commodities, trade, and geopolitics influencing market sentiment.


Key Topics:

• Middle East Conflict:
• Israeli forces entered the first stage of their planned assault on Gaza City, securing positions on the outskirts and striking targets including Gaza’s beach camp.
• PM Netanyahu ordered shortened timelines to defeat Hamas strongholds.
• UN Secretary General Guterres called for an immediate ceasefire and reversal of Israeli settlement expansion in the West Bank.
• Russia–Ukraine Security Talks:
• Zelensky’s chief of staff warned against repeating the failures of the 1994 Budapest memorandum, stressing the need for credible guarantees.
• VP Vance said Europeans must take the lion’s share of responsibility; reports suggest the US role will be minimal.
• Italian PM Meloni proposed a rapid-response plan to aid Ukraine immediately if Russia resumes hostilities.
• North Korea Tensions:
• A new report indicated North Korea maintains a fortified covert base that could house long-range ballistic missiles capable of striking the US mainland.
• Tariffs & Trade Developments:
• China pledged to deepen trade ties with Kazakhstan and expand cooperation in new sectors.
• China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan held trilateral talks on development, trade, and security coordination.
• India and China continued efforts to restore transport and border trade flows.
• FX Market Moves:
• Dollar Index stable after Fed minutes highlighted inflation risks despite political noise over Fed independence.
• EUR/USD flat with little fresh news; GBP/USD slipped below 1.35 as markets looked past hotter CPI.
• JPY steady around 147; Antipodeans remained weak post-RBNZ cut.
• PBoC set USD/CNY midpoint stronger than expected at 7.1287.
• Commodities:
• Oil prices extended gains on bullish US inventory data; Brent near $66, WTI above $62.
• Gold pulled back slightly after reaching $3,350/oz earlier in the week.
• Copper steady, with Chile’s Codelco forecasting El Teniente output at 316k tonnes in 2025.
• Notable European Headlines:
• UK Chancellor Reeves weighing cuts to the tax-free pension lump sum, a move that could raise £2bn annually.

Takeaway:


Markets remain focused on geopolitical risks, with Israeli operations in Gaza escalating, Ukraine security guarantees under debate, and North Korea missile threats resurfacing. FX is steady ahead of Jackson Hole, commodities firm on crude drawdowns, and UK fiscal policy back in the spotlight.