Ep.24 – The Information Edge: How Prediction Markets Actually Work and Why They Matter

Описание: Are you ready for an information source that tells the truth—whether you want to hear it or not?

Angelo Calvello interviews Professor Robin Hanson about how these markets work and their applications for institutional investors. Prof. Hanson, an Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University, explains that prediction markets aggregate information with remarkable calibration—when markets show 80% probability, outcomes occur exactly 80 times out of 100. He introduces decision markets for conditional estimates and discusses internal corporate applications. Despite consistently outperforming expert forecasts and committees, Hanson identifies a critical barrier: organizations resist these markets because they provide politically disruptive, independent information that conflicts with controlled narratives.

Professor Robin Hanson has pioneered prediction markets since 1988, being the first to write extensively about creating and subsidizing markets to improve estimates of serving as the first to write extensively about creating and subsidizing markets for better estimates on important topics. He was principal architect of the first internal corporate markets at Xanadu (1990), the first web markets at Foresight Exchange (1994), DARPA's Policy Analysis Market (2001-2003), and IARPA's combinatorial markets (2010-2015). As Associate Professor of Economics at George Mason University and Research Associate at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute, Hanson holds a doctorate from CalTech, master's degrees from the University of Chicago, and brings nine years of research programming experience from Lockheed and NASA.

In This Episode:
(00:00) Introduction to Professor Robin Hanson - What are prediction markets and how do they work mechanically?
(08:27) Information aggregation as the primary value for institutional investors
(14:42) Regulatory framework and platform risks in prediction markets
(19:16) Market manipulation concerns and why markets get more accurate
(24:57) Decision markets and conditional estimates for better choices
(30:19) Political disruption and organizational resistance to independent information
(33:06) Long-term potential and future growth of prediction markets

Like, subscribe, and share this episode with someone who might be interested, and please take time to leave us a review!

Angelo Calvello, Ph.D., is a serial innovator and co-founder of multiple investment firms, including Rosetta Analytics and Blue Diamond Asset Management. He leverages his extensive professional network and reputation for authentic thought leadership to curate conversations with genuinely innovative allocators.

As the "Dissident" columnist for Institutional Investor and former "Doctor Is In" columnist for Chief Investment Officer (winner of the 2016 Jesse H. Neal Award), Calvello has become a leading voice challenging conventional investment wisdom.

Beyond his professional pursuits, Calvello serves as Chairman of the Maryland State Retirement and Pension System's Climate Advisory Panel, Chairman of the Board of Outreach with Lacrosse and Schools (OWLS Lacrosse), a nonprofit organization creating opportunities for at-risk youths in Chicago, and trustee for a Chicago-area police pension fund. His career-long focus on leveraging innovation to deliver superior client outcomes makes him the ideal host for cutting-edge institutional investing conversations.

Resources:
Professor Robin Hanson:
● Biography: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/bio
● Publications/Vita: https://mason.gmu.edu/~rhanson/vita.html
● George Mason University Profile: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/rhanson
● Personal Website: http://hanson.gmu.edu
● Twitter/X: (Search @robinhanson)
Prediction Market Platforms Mentioned:
● Polymarket: https://polymarket.com
● Kalshi: https://kalshi.com
● Metaculus: https://metaculus.com
● Manifold Markets: https://manifold.markets

Robin Hanson's Essays on Prediction Markets: http://hanson.gmu.edu/futarchy.html

Overcoming Bias Blog (co-founded by Hanson): https://www.overcomingbias.com

Email Angelo: [email protected]
Follow Angelo on LinkedIn:   / angelocalvello  
Email Julie Parten, SVP, Business Strategy at P&I regarding sponsorship opportunities: [email protected]

Subscribe on Apple Podcast:
https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast...