The Big 3: New Inflation Data, China's Export Surge, and the Chip Wars

Описание: This week's episode of The Big 3 with hosts and CPA senior economists Mihir Torsekar and Andrew Rechenberg examines three major economic developments shaping U.S. policy debates: inflation, China’s export surge, and emerging rules around semiconductor exports. The discussion begins with the latest inflation data, highlighting a divergence between goods and services prices. While inflation in manufactured goods remains relatively muted (often around 1%), cost pressures are rising sharply in services such as healthcare, utilities, and housing. The team argue that the affordability crisis facing many Americans is less about tariffs or import prices and more about stagnant wages. Since 2000, U.S. productivity has risen dramatically while worker compensation has increased far more slowly, creating a widening gap that has pushed households toward debt and eroded purchasing power. 

The second topic explores China’s accelerating export growth, with shipments rising more than 20 percent early in 2026 despite declining exports to the United States. Much of this growth is being redirected to Europe and Southeast Asia, where Chinese goods are either finding new markets or being routed through intermediary countries to circumvent tariffs. The CPA Econ Team argue that China’s export surge reflects persistent industrial overcapacity following its real-estate slowdown.

Finally, the episode examines a proposed U.S. policy linking advanced semiconductor exports to foreign investment in American AI infrastructure. The conversation compares this approach with CPA’s “chip-for-chip” proposal, emphasizing that sustaining domestic semiconductor production will require both investment incentives and guaranteed demand from U.S. firms.