How Slow Job Growth is Influencing Fed Policy | September 2025 Market Update

Описание: What does the recent slowdown in job growth and rising unemployment claims mean for the Federal Reserve’s interest rate decisions and the economy? In this financial market update for September 2025, Chief Investment Officer Steve Latham, CFA, CFP®, breaks down the recent jobs trends and what they suggest about the Federal Reserve’s next moves.

Steve covers:

The number of jobs added has fallen significantly from recent years’ trends, with expectations for job growth near lows not seen since the Great Financial Crisis. Steve explains the divergence between employment survey expectations and actual job additions, and what this means for the labor market outlook.

There has been a steady increase in continuing unemployment claims, rising from 1.75 million to nearly 2 million since early 2024, signaling caution in employment stability.

Steve discusses how these employment trends are prompting the Federal Reserve to seriously consider cutting interest rates as soon as their September meeting, with markets currently pricing in up to three rate cuts by the end of 2025.

Despite concerns, corporate bond spreads remain historically low, indicating that investors are not yet very worried about economic risk related to jobs.

Steve highlights how these factors together shape expectations for the economy, inflation, and monetary policy in the coming months.

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🕘 Chapters
00:00 – Employment Focus
00:33 – Fed’s Interest Rate Policy Review
00:53 – Soft Data vs. Hard Data Explained
01:38 – Employment Expectations vs. Job Additions
02:22 – Rising Continuing Unemployment Claims
04:07 – Market Reaction & Bond Spreads
06:12 – Expected Fed Rate Cuts in 2025

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DISCLAIMER: The opinions voiced in this material are for general information only and are not intended to provide specific advice or recommendations for any individual. All performance referenced is historical and is no guarantee of future results. All indices are unmanaged and may not be invested into directly. The economic forecasts set forth in this material may not develop.

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