Delayed gratification is the definition of maturity.

Описание: Market Discipline: Stop Chasing the Rotation | S&P 500 Analysis (Feb 17)

The S&P 500 closed up a marginal 0.1% today, but the surface-level stability masks a messy internal rotation. We are currently stuck in a narrow band, facing heavy resistance at the 7,000 level that has capped gains since October. Despite dips being bought, we’ve seen back-to-back weekly losses.

In this video, I break down why I’m viewing the current market through a Yellow Light lens. We discuss the "calculated" nature of the current rotation into names like CAT and WMT, and why I believe this move isn't fundamentally justified.

The core question we need to ask today: Has the move already happened?

We also dive into the reality of earnings season. While 75% of companies are beating estimates, the S&P is still down 1.75% over the last five weeks and remains 20% overvalued against historical norms. I’ll also review today’s poor prints from HRI, BLDR, and VMC and what they signal for the broader economy.

Key Timestamps:
0:00 – Market Recap: S&P 500 Resistance at 7,000
1:12 – The Stop Light Analogy: Why it’s time for caution
2:00 – Trading Discipline: Stop chasing the move
4:35 – Earnings Reality Check: 5 weeks in, 20% overvaluation
6:40 – Sector Deep Dive: Herc, Builders 1st Source, and Vulcan Materials
9:18 – The "Buy the Dip" Reflex vs. Mag 7 Performance
10:08 – Be honest, not hopeful…and make more $.
12:36 – Closing Thoughts & Hearing From You.

Connect With Me:
What are your thoughts on this rotation? Are you buying the dip or sitting on your hands? Let’s discuss in the comments.

Email: [email protected]

Disclaimer: This video is for educational and informational purposes only. This is not investment or financial advice. Trading and investing involve significant risk. Always perform your own due diligence and consult with a licensed professional before making any financial decisions.