Japan’s Historic Election, Yen Defense, & Why Bitcoin Is Still a Liquidity Trade

Описание: In this episode, Nik breaks down dramatic political developments in Japan, including a snap election, currency intervention, and the U.S.-Japan effort to defend the yen, and explains why these moves matter for global liquidity and Bitcoin. He walks through Bitcoin’s drawdown using on-chain metrics like realized price and MVRV, shows why rising volatility and elevated stock correlations point to a macro driven move, and ties Japan’s bond market stress, dollar weakness, and FX intervention directly into TBL Liquidity, framing Bitcoin’s price action as part of a broader system level liquidity shift rather than an isolated market failure.

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Nik Bhatia's Twitter:   / timevalueofbtc  
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB

❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro & Japan's Impact on Bitcoin
00:15 Welcome & Today's Agenda
00:29 Bitcoin, Realized Price, and MVRV Explained
02:09 What Realized Price Means for Market Moves
04:59 Analyzing Last Week's Crash & IBIT's Role
05:59 OG Bitcoin Holders and IBIT Strategies
07:02 Did the IBIT Trade Unwind?
07:21 Macro Forces Behind the Bitcoin Drop
08:38 Correlation Between Bitcoin & Stocks
10:04 Correlation Deep Dive: 40-Day and One-Year
12:02 Exploring Bitcoin's Volatility Spike
13:13 Inside TBL Liquidity & Proprietary Metrics
14:43 Timing Market Turns with TBL Liquidity
16:26 Long-Term Bitcoin Holding vs. Active Trading
17:06 The Power of Holding Bitcoin
19:00 Return Profiles Over Different Time Horizons
20:01 TBL Liquidity Indicator: Does It Outperform?
21:06 Newsletter Insights & What’s Next
21:18 Japan's Political Shakeup & Economic Impact
22:40 Japan's Rate Check & USD/JPY Explained
24:46 US-Japan Currency Cooperation
25:55 Japan’s Fiscal Realities & Policy Choices
27:19 Tactical Moves: Currency Over Bonds
29:28 Japan’s GDP, Inflation, and Debt Outlook
31:13 Implications for TBL Liquidity & Global FX
32:01 Dollar Trendlines & What’s at Stake