What Falling Gas Prices Signal for Bitcoin & The 2026 Midterm Elections

Описание: In this episode, Nik breaks down why Bitcoin remains resilient despite year-to-date weakness by applying the TBL Liquidity framework. He walks through inflation expectations, energy prices, Treasury yields, and housing costs to explain how policy choices around oil production, affordability, and fiscal math shape liquidity conditions. Nik shows why lower inflation is the key driver for lower yields, how energy prices feed directly into CPI, and what calmer bond markets could mean for Bitcoin heading into 2026.

Episode links:
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Nik Bhatia's Twitter:   / timevalueofbtc  
Researcher Demian Schatt's Twitter: https://x.com/demianschatt
Lead Statistician Augustine Carrasco Twitter: https://x.com/AugustineCarrB

❗ The Bitcoin Layer and its guests do not provide investment advice.

Chapters:
00:00 Intro: Mastering Bitcoin FUD & Frameworks
00:19 Frameworks and Macro Drivers for Bitcoin
01:20 TBL Liquidity Model & Market Influences
02:52 Major Narratives: Bitcoin and Macro
04:04 December News & Institutional Bitcoin Moves
06:11 Fannie Mae & Freddie Mac IPO: Background
09:04 Capital Shortfalls and IPO Challenges
13:16 Mortgage Guarantees & System Impacts
17:05 How the Mortgage System Functions
20:33 The TBA Market & Mortgage Standardization
24:01 US Administration, Affordability & Policy
28:16 Energy: Oil Prices, Inflation & Policy Moves
36:44 US Oil Production, Exports, and Market Effects
41:54 Fixed Income, Treasury Yields, and Policy Needs
45:34 Rent, CPI & Path for Lower Inflation
47:00 The Administration's Strategy: Rolling Debt
49:32 Healthcare Costs, Legislation & Affordability
51:28 US Trade Deficit: Policy and Global Dynamics
54:33 Trade, Ownership, and Security Implications
55:36 Bitcoin, Macroeconomics, and Looking Ahead