Strategic Notes - How Fever-Tree Cracked America: The Power of Borrowed Distribution

Описание: 𝗙𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿-𝗧𝗿𝗲𝗲 𝗴𝗿𝗲𝘄 𝗨𝗦 𝗿𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗻𝘂𝗲 𝟲% 𝘁𝗼 £𝟭𝟯𝟮𝗠. 𝗧𝗵𝗲𝘆 𝗱𝗶𝗱𝗻'𝘁 𝗱𝗼 𝗶𝘁 𝗮𝗹𝗼𝗻𝗲.

𝗠𝗼𝗹𝘀𝗼𝗻 𝗖𝗼𝗼𝗿𝘀' 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗻𝗲𝘁𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗸 𝗺𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗶𝘁 𝗵𝗮𝗽𝗽𝗲𝗻.

→ Share price jumped 5%+ after the trading update.
→ Core brand revenue up 4% in constant currency.
→ US became their principal growth market.
→ Non-tonic now 45% of revenue.

Every premium beverage executive is asking:
"How do we scale in the US?"
↳ Wrong question. Ask: 𝘞𝘩𝘰𝘴𝘦 𝘥𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘣𝘶𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘯𝘦𝘵𝘸𝘰𝘳𝘬 𝘤𝘢𝘯 𝘸𝘦 𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘳𝘰𝘸?
↳ Standalone premium brands can't match portfolio players.
↳ Distribution is the new competitive moat.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟰 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵𝘀 𝗮𝗯𝗼𝘂𝘁 𝗱𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗿𝗶𝗯𝘂𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗽𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗻𝗲𝗿𝘀𝗵𝗶𝗽𝘀:

𝟭. 𝗕𝗿𝗼𝗮𝗱 𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁𝗳𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗼𝘀 𝘄𝗶𝗻 𝘀𝗵𝗲𝗹𝗳 𝘀𝗽𝗮𝗰𝗲
↳ Premium mixers ride the same truck as mainstream beer.
↳ Logistics complexity drops. Margin recovery follows.
↳ Molson Coors sells beer, hard seltzer, soft drinks.
↳ Customers want fewer supplier relationships.

𝟮. 𝗢𝗻-𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗮𝗰𝗰𝗲𝘀𝘀 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗲
↳ Bars want premium non-alc options. Distribution gets you in.
↳ Light tonics forecast to grow 8% CAGR through 2031.
↳ Soft drinks now 15% of the on-trade market.
↳ Moderation is structural. Not a trend.

𝟯. 𝗟𝗼𝗰𝗮𝗹 𝗽𝗿𝗼𝗱𝘂𝗰𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝗮𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗲𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗮𝗱𝘃𝗮𝗻𝘁𝗮𝗴𝗲
↳ Distribution partner + local production = structural cost advantage.
↳ 540 bps margin gain in 2024. 200 bps more targeted.
↳ Glass and freight costs normalised.
↳ US Fever-Tree is locally produced.

𝟰. 𝗖𝗼𝗻𝘀𝗼𝗹𝗶𝗱𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗿𝗼𝘂𝗴𝗵 𝗮𝗹𝗹𝗶𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲𝘀, 𝗻𝗼𝘁 𝗮𝗰𝗾𝘂𝗶𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀
↳ Molson Coors gets premium exposure.
↳ No debt. No integration headaches.
↳ Partnerships preserve optionality.
↳ Fever-Tree keeps brand equity.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝟯 𝗶𝗺𝗽𝗹𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝗶𝗼𝗻𝘀 𝗶𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘄𝗼𝗿𝗹𝗱 𝗼𝗳 𝗧𝗼𝘁𝗮𝗹 𝗕𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝗮𝗴𝗲 𝗖𝗼𝗺𝗽𝗮𝗻𝗶𝗲𝘀:

First: Distribution is a capability you borrow, not build.
↳ The cost of going alone is market irrelevance.
↳ National networks take decades to construct.
↳ Partnership gets you there in months.

Second: Portfolio diversification protects the core.
↳ Tequila and whiskey trends captured.
↳ RTDs the emerging opportunity.

Third: TBC portfolios are the future.
↳ Moderation creates demand for premium soft options.
↳ Companies spanning categories own the occasions.

𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗵𝗮𝗿𝗱 𝘁𝗿𝘂𝘁𝗵:

Premium brands built their equity on quality.
But quality alone doesn't get you on the shelf.

Fever-Tree's US growth isn't about a better product.
It's about Molson Coors' reach.

The question for premium beverage leaders:
Are you building distribution?
Or borrowing it?