Strategic Notes - Bourbon’s Boom Is Over: Inside the Great Whiskey Valuation Reset

Описание: Bourbon’s decade-long boom has hit a wall, and most industry leaders didn’t see it coming. The real story isn’t about Kirin’s sale of Four Roses. It’s about a fundamental reset in how bourbon—and American whiskey—are valued.

Just a year ago, Kirin was hoping for a billion-dollar deal. In the end, Four Roses sold to E. & J. Gallo for up to seven hundred seventy-five million dollars. That’s an eleven-times EBITDA multiple—far below the peak-era premiums. This isn’t about tough negotiations. It’s about the market finally recognising new risks.

Many investors are still asking if bourbon is a growth story. That’s the wrong question. The real issue is structural oversupply. The data is clear: inventories are at record highs, with over sixteen million barrels ageing in the US. This isn’t a temporary blip. It’s a long-term shift.

Exports are collapsing. US spirits exports dropped nine percent last year. Trade friction has made it nearly impossible to rely on international markets. Now, producers are forced to focus on the domestic market, whether they want to or not.

Valuations are resetting across the board. Smaller distillers are under financial pressure, while big buyers with strong balance sheets are gaining leverage. Premiumisation is splitting the market. Ultra-rare releases hold their value, but everyday premium brands are getting squeezed.

Meanwhile, the “total beverage” strategy is showing cracks. Kirin is leaving spirits entirely, shifting to health science and pharma. Western brewers who bought into spirits are now facing write-downs. Not every beer company wants—or needs—to be a total beverage giant.

Here’s the hard truth: Kirin isn’t selling Four Roses because it’s a bad business. They’re selling because bourbon no longer fits their future. For investors, the question is simple: are you still pricing in the boom, or are you ready for the consolidation that’s already here?