Predicting Conflict and Displacement for Anticipatory Action

Описание: Displacement continues to increase at a global scale and increasingly happening in complex, multi-crisis settings leading to more complex and deeper humanitarian needs. Responding to vulnerabilities before disaster strikes is crucial, but anticipatory action is contingent on the ability to accurately forecast what will happen in the future. Forecasting and contingency planning is not new in the humanitarian sector, where scenario-building continues to be an exercise conducted in most humanitarian operations to strategically plan for coming events. But the accuracy of these exercises remains limited. To address this challenge, humanitarian actors are increasingly using AI models to predict conflict and displacement, and pilots are now being conducted to use these models for anticipatory action responses.

These new tools open up a wide range of opportunities but also have limitations and challenges, especially when using for anticipatory action responses. This session will explore these aspects in more detail including a variety of viewpoints and practical examples from field tests in Burkina Faso and South Sudan.

Organizer: Danish Refugee Council

Speakers:
Seth Caldwell, Data Scientist, Predictive Analytics Team, OCHA Centre for Humanitarian Data
Isabelle Arradon, Director of Research, International Crisis Group
Sofia Kyriazi, AI Engineer, UNHCR
Katayoun Kishi, Head of Data Science, ACLED
Moderator: Alexander Kjærum, Global Advisor, Danish Refugee Council

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This session was part of the Data for Peace 2023: Using Data to Foster Peace Conference over October 16-20, 2023, a five-day hybrid event with national and international experts in the data for peacebuilding and prevention ecosystem to facilitate peer-to-peer exchange and leverage emerging technologies and data science methods to tackle the growing challenges across the humanitarian-development-peace and climate nexus globally.

This event was hosted by the NYU Center on International Cooperation and supported by the Complex Risk Analytics Fund (CRAF’d) and its partners, with the in-person segment of the event hosted at Google's NYC office.

About the conference: https://cic.nyu.edu/events/data-for-p...

More about the Data for Peace program: https://cic.nyu.edu/program/preventio...