The Dangers of Survivorship Bias`

Описание: In the early days of World War II, the U.S. military made a logical—but fatal—mistake.

They analyzed the bullet holes on returning planes and decided to reinforce the areas that were hit the most. It seemed like common sense: put more armor where the planes are getting shot.

But a young statistician named Abraham Wald raised his hand with a warning: "You are making a tragic mistake."

Wald realized they were only looking at the survivors. They were completely missing the data from the planes that didn't make it back.

This is Survivorship Bias—a logical error that distorts our understanding of success and failure. And it’s not just a history lesson; it’s affecting the decisions you make every single day.

In this video, I break down:

The WWII story that defined Survivorship Bias.

Why studying "successful people" (like college dropouts) can actually be dangerous.

The Possibility Grid: A simple 2x2 framework to help you see the "unseen" data and make smarter decisions.

The most dangerous data point is the one you never see. Let’s uncover it.

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