CBAM 2026–2028 Update: Downstream Scope, Electricity Fix, and Anti-Circumvention Explained

Описание: CBAM expansion explained: EC proposal to add selected downstream steel & aluminium products from 1 Jan 2028.

CBAM electricity “fix” from 1 Jan 2026: average grid factors; cleaner exporters can use actuals.

What to do now: map CN codes to SKUs, secure EU-method data, update contracts, and model 2026–2028 exposure.

CBAM is stepping beyond upstream materials. The European Commission’s proposed changes (final list pending Annex I to the Circumvention & Extension of Scope report) would:

  • Bring selected downstream products into scope (steel/aluminium intensive).
  • Count pre-consumer scrap when used as a precursor.
  • Strengthen anti-circumvention (proof of place/time of production; tighter rules on “actuals”).
  • “Fix” electricity by using average grid factors—making actual emissions usable for cleaner exporters.

Action checklist (practical & fast)

  1. Map exposure: extend CN code mapping into downstream SKUs; tag scrap flows.
  2. Data over defaults: require EU-method plant-level actuals (incl. precursors); retain audit rights.
  3. Contracts: add anti-circumvention reps/warranties; “no data = default at supplier cost.”
  4. Electricity: prepare to use actuals where cleaner than grid averages.
  5. Plan cash: scenario the EU ETS-linked burden for 2026–2028; align treasury to surrender cadence.

Why this matters
CBAM is becoming a structural part of industrial decarbonisation. Teams that standardise data and contracts early will control cost and avoid default-value penalties.

Note
These items are proposed and subject to change when Annex I is published. Use this video as a readiness guide, not legal advice.

One line to act on
Price the change before it prices you—evidence first, money second.

#CBAM #EUETS #CarbonMarkets #TradeCompliance #SupplyChain #ESG #Decarbonisation #Policy #SustainableIndustry #MRV #Steel #Aluminium #Electricity