Export Growth - Fuel Price Nexus in Developing Countries: Real or False Concern

Описание: This seminar will discuss evidence on the impact of domestic fuel price increases on export growth. Using a sample of 77 developing countries over the period 2000-2014, we find that an increase in domestic gasoline or diesel price adversely affects real non-fuel export growth, but this impact phases out within two years after the shock. Further, the impact is mainly noticeable in countries with a high-energy dependency ratio and where access to electricity is limited. Moreover, large fuel price shocks do not seem to lead to disproportionately large changes in exports, suggesting that neither the gradualism nor the shock therapy approach in fuel subsidy reforms dominates.

Speaker:

Roland Kangni Kpodar is Deputy Unit Chief in the Strategy, Policy and Review Department at the International Monetary Fund and Senior Fellow at the Foundation for Studies and Research on International Development (FERDI). He graduated with a Ph.D. in economics from the University of Auvergne in France and since joining the Fund in 2006, he has worked on a number of developing and emerging economies, and various policy issues including fiscal, external, monetary and financial sector matters. At the Fund, he is also in charge of the institutional relationship with Multilateral Development Banks and co-manage the IMF-FCDO project on macroeconomic research in Low-income countries. He has published extensively on financial development, poverty reduction, and fiscal issues, including fuel subsidies.