The Data’s Edge: A Playbook for Trading Options Around Economic Releases

Описание: The Data’s Edge is a playbook for trading options around economic data releases.

00:00 - Title
00:39 - Intro
01:47 - Inflation Data
06:21 - Employment Data (Nonfarm Payrolls; ADP)
12:12 - Employment Data (Average Hourly Earnings)
15:13 - Employment Data (Jobless Claims; JOLTS)
20:06 - Leading Economic Indicators (ISM Manufacturing & Services PMI; Retail Sales)
25:22 - Leading Economic Indicators (Consumer Confidence; Michigan Consumer Sentiment)
28:20 - Leading Economic Indicators (Durable Goods Orders)
30:16 - National Accounts Data (GDP)
31:39 - National Accounts Data (Industrial Production; Capacity Utilization)
34:36 - Fed-related information (FOMC; Dot Plot; Fed Chairman's Press Conference)
39:25 - Fed-related information (Beige Book; Fedspeak)
42:19 - Quick Tier List
45:47 - Debit Option Strategies - Large Moves (with figures)
51:38 - Credit Option Strategies - Small Moves (with figures)
56:49 - But... Should You Always Trade? - Requirements
01:00:27 - But... Should You Always Trade? - Example Description
01:05:17 - But... Should You Always Trade? - Using other data to assess likelihood of suprise moves
01:08:51 - But... Should You Always Trade? - Decision and Setups
01:15:12 - Notes

This video is a long-form deep dive into how I think about macro data, expected price moves, and option pricing around events like CPI, NFP, and Fed decisions.

The goal is not to predict the data.
The goal is to decide whether the market is mispricing the expected intraday move — and when the right trade is no trade at all.

In this video, I cover:
• Why economic data moves markets
• Which data releases actually matter
• How to think about expected vs implied moves
• Why surprise vs in-line outcomes matter
• How option structures map to different move regimes
• A full CPI example
• A decision framework for trading (or standing aside)

This is intended as a reference-quality deep dive.
You don’t need to watch it in one sitting — use the chapters to navigate to the sections you care about.

Questions, edge cases, and disagreements are welcome.
Feel free to leave a comment or reach out on LinkedIn (link below).

  / marco-afonso  

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