The Great Repricing: The Credit Layer | CIO Intelligence Nº 03

Описание: There's a woman in Ohio checking her pension statement. Seven percent return. Diversified. Professionally managed. She closes the laptop feeling fine.

What she doesn't know: part of her retirement has been lent to companies paying interest by borrowing more.

$1.7 trillion in private credit — larger than subprime in 2007.

Chapter 3 of The Great Repricing:
• Default rate: 9.2% (Fitch) — 60% disguised as PIK/deferrals
• Phantom cushion: valuations based on 2021 multiples, compressed 25-30% since (UBP)
• Rate trap: coverage 3.0x → 1.6x with ZERO revenue change
• Sponsor walk-away: performing → impaired in 90 days (Merton model)
• BDC spiral: 80% below NAV (Bloomberg), Blackstone $3.7B redemptions, Moody's negative
• 2008 parallel: subprime was $1.3T. This is $1.7T. Bigger.

The loop: Hormuz → inflation sticky → Fed can't cut → rates crush loans → defaults → BDC spiral → pension losses → capital flight → currencies weaken → inflation stickier → Fed STILL can't cut. Same origin. Circular.

Energy repriced your fuel. Food repriced your kitchen. Now the financial plumbing is repricing your retirement.

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⚠️ This video is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice.

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