The Investor's Dilemma: Ride The Bubble Or Seek Safety? | Peter St Onge

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Suddenly signs of systemic stress are cropping up all around us.

In the public debt markets, credit spreads are on the rise after years of dormancy.

In the private credit markets, defaults and counter party risk concerns have moved to the forefront.

Volatility has returned to the stock market as doubts of AI spending sustainability mount.

And worldwide, suspicions of fiat currency debasement are going mainstream.

Where is all this headed?

To discuss, we're fortunate to welcome macro, markets and monetary analyst Peter St Onge to the program

#aibubble #recession #economy

00:00 - Current assessment: we are mid-cycle, not late-cycle; liquidity indicators are “on fire”
03:22 - Three big positive drivers: Fed easing, ending QT, and a tsunami of foreign investment
04:02 - Saudi Arabia ups commitment to $1 trillion; total foreign pledges could hit $7-8 trillion
05:19 - AI capabilities growing 10× per year — far faster than the internet revolution
06:16 - Combined effect of Fed + foreign cash + AI = very strong growth story into 2026-2027
07:28 - Markets however are “catastrophic” the last two weeks — entirely a liquidity scare
09:13 - Everything (stocks, Bitcoin, gold) sold off together = pure Fed-driven move
10:12 - We are clearly in an AI bubble; valuations are worse than dot-com
10:44 - Bubbles last 5-6 years on average and end on liquidity, NOT on valuation
11:51 - Classic bubble pattern: when it finally pops it often ends higher than where you thought it was insane
13:35 - Economy should see meaningful tailwinds starting in 2026 from tax/refund changes & deregulation
15:27 - Deregulation so far disappointing vs. hopes, but still a huge improvement vs. Biden era
16:36 - 2026 midterms are the big wildcard — Republican hold = policies continue; Democrat win = gridlock
19:19 - AI spending boom is still very early — we haven’t even reached the “stupid college kid app” stage yet
22:16 - If AI implodes, comparable to 2001 dot-com crash — mild/shallow recession at worst
25:47 - Deportations & federal layoffs will mechanically lower reported GDP but make Americans richer
30:50 - The U.S. now has three economies: top 20% thriving, bottom 20% miserable, middle 60% squeezed
32:06 - Trump policies (tariffs, deportations, AI job shift) disproportionately help blue-collar workers
36:18 - Next 5-10 years likely good for blue collars, very bad for white collars → big societal angst coming
37:02 - New Fed chair: most candidates talk dovish but are actually hard-money loyalists
38:51 - Fed’s natural state is easy money; post-Biden inflation scare is fading → expect easing bias again
40:19 - Fiscal spending will keep getting worse — no natural predator in Washington
42:58 - Next recession will bring massive new spending; UBI odds ~80% and almost impossible to remove once in
45:14 - Long-term dollar debasement is the easiest prediction; question is only the speed
47:48 - Peter’s personal playbook: chase strong trends (currently AI), heavy hedge in gold + some Bitcoin
51:09 - Next big trends after AI: robotics (5-7 years out) then longevity/biotech (early 2030s)
58:42 - Over-regulation has shut regular investors out of the best private deals — proceeds go only to the rich
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