Triple economic squeeze: how should S. Korea respond to Middle East tension, tariffs, and...

Описание: Triple economic squeeze: how should S. Korea respond to Middle East tension, tariffs, and slowing demand?

중동 리스크•美 관세•내수 침체 ‘삼중고’… 한국 경제, 해법은?

Welcome to Within The Frame, where we bring the most pressing issues across the globe into focus. I'm Kim Mok-yeon.
As of June 24th, a fragile ceasefire between Iran and Israel has taken effect, bringing a momentary sense of relief to global markets.
Stocks rallied, oil prices plunged, and volatility eased.
But beneath the surface, deeper risks are piling up.
The U.S. Federal Reserve remains cautious on rate cuts, even as President Trump's renewed tariffs add inflation pressure.
Meanwhile, Iran’s threat to close the Strait of Hormuz has reignited fears over global oil supply — a direct risk for South Korea, which depends on that route for nearly 70% of its crude imports.
With domestic demand already fragile and the government pushing a 30.5 trillion won emergency budget, Korea now faces a dangerous mix: Middle East instability, U.S. trade tension, and internal slowdown. So, how serious is this triple threat — and what should we be doing now?

For a deeper discussion on this, we connect to Song Soo-young, Professor of Business and Economics at Chung-Ang University. Welcome.

Also joining us is Minjung Park, Professor of Business Administration at Kumoh National Institute of Technology. Good to see you.

(SONG) 1. Let’s begin with June 24th — the day markets reacted to the Iran–Israel ceasefire.
U.S. stocks jumped over 1%, oil plunged more than 6%, and volatility dropped sharply. Was this just short-term relief after days of tension, or do you see early signs of a more lasting market rebound?

(PARK) 2. That same day, Fed Chair Powell warned inflation could rise again this summer, staying cautious about a July rate cut.
But markets are still hoping for an earlier move, even before September. With Trump’s tariffs now adding new inflation risk, how should we interpret the Fed’s current position?

(SONG) 3. Turning to Korea’s direct exposure — Iran’s threat to block the Strait of Hormuz sent a clear warning.
Nearly 70% of Korea’s oil imports pass through that route. If a full blockade happens, what kind of economic shock should we prepare for?

(SONG) 5. So with these risks building — what does Korea need to do right now, practically and strategically?
What immediate responses should we be seeing, and what structural shifts should we start planning for?

(PARK) 6. Another major pressure point is tariffs — Trump’s new 50% duties on steel-derived appliances are now active.
This puts Korean exporters, especially in electronics and appliances, in a tough spot. How much damage could this do to our trade performance?

(SONG) 7. Exporters are already activating Plan Bs — shifting supply chains, raising prices, reworking production.
But are Korean firms moving fast enough to adapt? Or do you see broader competitiveness risks emerging?

(PARK) 8. On the policy front — the government’s rolling out a 30.5 trillion won extra budget.
With the Middle East still unstable and tariffs piling on, is that enough? Or are we going to need more rounds of support?

(SONG) 9. There’s also the balancing act — inflation is rising, but so is recession risk.
Do we prioritize stimulus and risk fueling inflation? Or tighten up and risk stalling growth? What’s the smarter path right now?

(PARK) 10. Finally — we’re now facing a rare mix of war fears, tariff battles, and shaky domestic demand.
If you could send one clear message to Korea’s economic leadership today, what would it be?


Thank you for your time and for your insights tonight, Prof.Song and Prof.Park. We appreciate it.

#SouthKorea #Economy #MiddleEast #Tariff #Slowing_demand #SongSooyoung #MinjungPark #대한민국 #경제 #중동 #관세 #내수 #Arirang_News #아리랑뉴스

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2025-06-26, 20:30 (KST)