The Real Reason Putin Can’t End This War

Описание: Putin's war in Ukraine has entered its fifth year as Russia continues to struggle to reach the military goals first set out. Russian forces have advanced only tens of kilometres in Donetsk. Casualty estimates run into the millions. Defence spending now consumes roughly 8% of GDP. Recruitment bonuses continue to rise. And yet Vladimir Putin cannot claim victory — nor can he easily pivot to peace.

This is no longer a war of manoeuvre. It is a war of attrition — shaped by drone kill zones that make massed armour suicidal, by industrial output, by recruitment economics, and by political stamina inside Moscow, Kyiv, Washington and Brussels.

Vladimir Putin is increasingly caught in a strategic vice of his own making. He cannot deliver the decisive victory he promised at a cost the system can sustainably bear. He cannot easily settle without risking internal instability. And he cannot escalate without further hollowing out the state.

Meanwhile, Ukraine continues to adapt — from naval drone strikes in the Black Sea to decentralised drone production at scale — defying early predictions of collapse.

This war has punished certainty. It has exposed the danger of strategic arrogance. And it raises an uncomfortable question: if we miscalculated Ukraine so badly in 2022, what are we miscalculating elsewhere?

The coming year is unlikely to bring dramatic breakthroughs. Instead, expect deeper economic pressure, intensified long-range strikes, and an even greater reliance on industrial capacity and political endurance.

If you want to understand why Russia’s economy may become the decisive front — and why its trajectory could be entering a more dangerous phase — watch my latest deep dive next.

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Chapters

00:00 The Four-Year Mark: A Historical Perspective
04:42 The Role of Drone Warfare in Modern Conflict
10:51 The Political and Economic Implications for Russia
16:33 The Narrative of Inevitable Russian Victory
17:59 The Unexpected Resilience of Ukraine
20:26 The Future of Warfare and Endurance

#ukraine #russia #putin #internationalrelations #geopolitics #war #nato