Florida Senate: Can Democrat Angie Nixon Beat Ashley Moody?

Описание: Angie Nixon, a Democratic state representative from Jacksonville, beat Alex Vindman in the August primary. Now she faces Senator Ashley Moody for the last two years of Marco Rubio's term. One September poll had them tied, while others put Moody well ahead. We look at whether Florida is really in play and who we think wins.
Polls and betting odds as of September 28, 2026.

Chapters
0:00 The open
0:17 The number that changed the conversation
1:31 The upset that made Nixon matter
2:33 The campaign method
3:33 What the message is built around
4:08 Moody's built-in advantage
4:58 The fight Moody wants
5:47 Moody's exposed flank
6:49 All the polls side by side
7:55 The odds against an upset
8:48 The verdict and the next three tests

Sources
Polls: Stetson CPOR, InsiderAdvantage, St. Pete Polls, Quantus Insights, Change Research, UNF PORL. Ratings: Cook Political Report. Markets: Kalshi (September 25, 2026). Money: FEC filings through July 29, 2026. Primary results: Florida Division of Elections. Background: AP, Axios, Florida Politics, RealClearPolling.

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