US BOND WARNINGs? | The Valuation School

Описание: The bond market usually notices problems before everyone else does.

Right now, it’s flashing a signal that investors haven’t seen in almost two years.

Markets started 2026 expecting multiple rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve. Instead, inflation risks have pushed those expectations in the opposite direction.

With oil prices rising, inflation staying sticky, and US government debt at record levels, the Fed is caught in a difficult position. And the bond market has started pricing that reality in.

This pattern has a name: Bear Flattening.

It’s a concept every finance student should understand because it has historically appeared during periods of tightening financial conditions.

In this post, we break down what bear flattening means, why it matters, and why investors around the world are watching the US bond market so closely.