Col Douglas Macgregor WARNING: The Dangers of Overstretching the U.S. Military

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Col Douglas Macgregor argues that China’s recent military activity around Taiwan—blending training, readiness, and potential combat—is meant as a clear deterrent message rather than something fundamentally new. China is signaling it can rapidly transition from exercises to real combat and will not tolerate Taiwan being turned into a Western military outpost.

Drawing lessons from Ukraine, the speaker claims the U.S. and its allies lost a proxy war against Russia by fighting on Russia’s strategic doorstep, where Russia had overwhelming logistical and mobilization advantages. The same logic, they argue, applies even more strongly to Taiwan: China would have decisive advantages fighting close to its mainland, while the U.S. would face stretched supply lines, depleted arsenals, and limited industrial capacity.

Key points include:

China’s red lines on Taiwan:

A formal declaration of Taiwanese independence.

The placement of foreign (especially U.S.) military forces or missiles on Taiwan.
Crossing either would trigger war, which China would likely win, though at high cost.

Regional support is unlikely: Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, and others are unlikely to join a U.S.-led war against China over Taiwan.

Taiwan’s internal politics: Taiwan’s parliament and business elites largely oppose independence and favor stable relations with China, reducing the likelihood of provocation from within Taiwan itself.

U.S. intervention would fail: The speaker asserts that any direct U.S.–China war over Taiwan would end in U.S. defeat, based on long-standing military simulations and China’s superior regional industrial and missile capacity.

Strategic advice: The U.S. should avoid repeating the Ukraine mistake, avoid fighting near an adversary’s homeland, and instead allow adversaries to overextend themselves if they act rashly.

Broader risk: The U.S. is already overstretched by commitments to Ukraine, Israel, and the Middle East, with looming risks involving Iran and even a potential Israel–Turkey clash.

Overall, the argument is that defending Taiwan militarily against China is a losing proposition for the U.S., strategically unwise, and likely to accelerate broader global conflict rather than prevent it.