07.07.2022: Brent crude falls below $100 per barrel. Outlook for oil, gold, RUB.

Описание: When the North American trading session opened, oil prices went down again. At some point, they even dropped below $100 per barrel. The reason for such dynamics was statements by Fed officials that in order to fight red-hot inflation, the central bank should raise interest rates more aggressively than at present. Against this background, the US dollar gained strong upside momentum. This in turn resulted in a decline in the value of commodities. Nevertheless, this downtrend is likely to be short-lived as the risk of energy shortages remains. Moreover, worries about a potential global energy crunch are growing as Western countries are exploring ways to cap the price of Russian oil. Yesterday, it was reported that the United States was considering capping Russian oil at $40-$60 a barrel. Such a decision will inevitably lead to a supply reduction and hence drive oil prices to new historical highs. According to the trading chart, Brent crude oil futures broke below the psychological level of 100, which indicates high short interest. Based on historical movements in the market, the levels of 97.50-100 serve as an area of interaction between trading forces. At these levels, the benchmark has repeatedly faced a decrease in the volume of short positions followed by a reversal. Thus, oil prices will most likely rebound if the price fails to fix below this area on the daily chart. The news that the US Federal Reserve could take a more aggressive stance on interest rate hikes, also affected gold. The yellow metal tumbled to $ 1,730 per ounce. At the moment, the market is trying to stabilize around the level of $1,745 per ounce. However, the outlook for gold is still dismal. Moreover, the European Central Bank will soon start raising interest rates. Higher rates in turn boost demand for debt securities, which are regarded as a safe-haven asset along with gold. The market continues to redistribute capital between its various segments, while gold seems to be bearing the brunt of this process’ effects. This means that gold prices may well plunge below $1,700 per ounce in the near future. The ruble seemed to be the only one to ignore the news regarding the Fed’s possible more aggressive moves. On the contrary, the Russian currency spent the previous trading day recovering from its recent sharp drop. This clearly indicates that the ruble now depends solely on the policy of the Bank of Russia and the government. Apparently, the market will now try to consolidate at new levels. There is a likelihood that the ruble will trade within a range of 62 to 64 rubles per dollar.

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00:00 INTRO
00:22 QUOTES
00:48 SANCTIONS
01:03 BRENT
01:35 GOLD
02:26 USD | RUB