Why are Indian Cement Companies Investing 1.2 Lakh Crores? | Markets by Zerodha Hindi

Описание: Cement War 2.0: ₹1.2 Lakh Crore Capex – Boom Ya Oversupply ka Risk? 🏗️🧱
India ka cement sector ek massive capex phase me enter kar chuka hai.
FY22 se FY25 ke beech cement companies ne ₹70–80 thousand crore ka capex kiya, aur agle 3 saalon me ₹1.2 lakh crore ka aur investment expected hai.
Iss cycle me 16–17 crore tonnes ki new capacity add hone wali hai — jo pichle capex cycle se almost double hai.
UltraTech, Ambuja, Dalmia Bharat, Shree Cement — sab aggressively expand kar rahe hain.
Lekin sawal ye hai:
👉 Cement sector me achanak itna bada capex kyu ho raha hai?
👉 Kya ye demand-driven growth hai, ya aage jaa kar oversupply ka risk create karega? 🤔

🔍 Key Insights from the Video
🏗️ Part 1: Decoding the Capex Plans of Cement Companies
India ka cement demand lagbhag 45 crore tonnes per annum hai, aur CRISIL ke estimates ke hisaab se FY28 tak har saal 3–4 crore tonnes ka incremental demand add ho sakta hai.
Housing, infrastructure aur commercial sectors — teeno demand ko push kar rahe hain, lekin infrastructure segment sabse fast growing ban raha hai.
Government ka heavy focus highways, railways, metros aur irrigation projects par cement demand ko structurally strong bana raha hai. Isi demand ko cater karne ke liye companies apni capacity targets aggressively revise kar rahi hain.

⚙️ Profitability ka Game: Sirf Capacity Nahi, Cost Control
Cement ek commodity business hai, jahan pricing power limited hota hai.
Isliye iss capex cycle ka focus sirf volume growth par nahi, balki profitability improve karne par bhi hai.
Companies 3 major costs par kaam kar rahi hain:
⚡ Power & fuel cost (renewable energy, alternative fuels)
🚚 Freight cost (split grinding units, rail logistics)
🏭 Operational efficiency (debottlenecking, brownfield expansion)

Green energy ka share badhaya ja raha hai, split grinding units ke through freight cost kam ki ja rahi hai, aur brownfield expansions se lower capex + faster execution achieve kiya ja raha hai.

🚨 Part 2: Risk of Oversupply?
FY28 tak India ki cement capacity lagbhag 85 crore tonnes per annum ho sakti hai.
70% average capacity utilisation ke hisaab se effective capacity ~59.5 crore tonnes banti hai, jabki demand ~55 crore tonnes estimate ki ja rahi hai.
Short term me yeh gap manageable lagta hai.
Lekin FY28 ke baad, agar demand slow hui aur capex aggressive raha, toh China jaise oversupply scenario ka risk ignore nahi kiya ja sakta.
Shayad isi liye kuch players, jaise Shree Cement, thoda conservative approach le rahe hain aur demand assess karne ke baad hi capex badhane ki baat kar rahe hain.

🧠 Big Question
Kya India ka cement sector long-term growth story hai?
Ya phir ye capex cycle future me margin pressure aur oversupply ka reason ban sakta hai?
💬 Aap kya sochte ho?
Comments me apna view zaroor share karo 👇
Video informative laga ho to Like 👍 | Share 🔁 | Subscribe 🔔 karna mat bhooliyega!
Milte hain next video me — Markets by Zerodha 📊

TimeStamps:
00:00 - Intro
01:10 - Part One : Decoding the Capex Plans of Cement Companies
12:28 - Part Two : Risk of Oversupply?
14:27 - Outro

Sources:
Crisil ratings-
https://www.crisilratings.com/en/home...
Shree Cement Investor Presentation July 2023 - https://www.shreecement.com/uploads/c...
Shree Cement Concall Transcript Q2 FY26-
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/cor...
Indian Infrastructure Article- https://indianinfrastructure.com/2025...
UltraTech Cement Concall Transcript Q2 FY26-
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/cor...
Ambuja Cement Investor’s Presentation Q2 FY26-
https://www.bseindia.com/xml-data/cor...
JSW Cement RHP-
https://www.jswcement.in/pdf/Industry...
Cement Association of India Website-
https://www.cmaindia.org/dashboardnew
Dalmia Bharat Cement Investor Relations-
https://www.dalmiacement.com/media/pr....
Business Standard Article-
https://www.business-standard.com/ind...
Economic Times Article-
https://infra.economictimes.indiatime...
Indian Express Article-
https://indianexpress.com/article/sma...
Global Cement-
https://www.globalcement.com/news/ite...