Macro Regime Says Go Long Gold | Macro Portfolio Now +5.69% YTD

Описание: This is a free preview of a paid episode. To hear more, visit thesimpleside.substack.com (https://thesimpleside.substack.com?ut...)



Enjoy this article thanks to Cash App! (https://api.wellput.io/v1/cm?cmid=637...)


Reminders: Copy Trading Here (https://marketplace.joinautopilot.com...) Portfolio Views Here (https://thesimpleside.news/portfolios) Macro Indicators Here (https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indi...) Research Reports Here (https://thesimpleside.news/research)


Good Morning, Simple Side Shareholders


I like how we have been operating over the past couple of weeks in our weekly Saturday Sendout. We have been jumping right into the Macro analysis that we have running on our data website (https://thesimpleside.news/macro-indi....


Let’s start with our general macro overview…


Macro Overview


The current macro environment is a hold from my perspective. For those of you who do not know, “my perspective” incorporates 12 different macro metrics, including “The Buffett Indicator,” the spread between the 2yr and 10yr yields, inflation data, and more.


So what does a hold mean, and what is driving that general market sentiment?


A rough bond market and an overvalued stock market are currently competing against a strong gold market. That battle is resulting in a stalemate in my models.


Every week, as you know, our website is updated with the newest macro model. That model includes a weekly allocation update (which is made every Friday) and a macro regime rating across the three asset classes. The allocation is made between 3 tickers: TLT (representing bonds), SPY (representing equities), and GLD (representing gold).


You can see that the weight is still extremely heavily skewed towards GLD holdings. I think this speaks volumes about the underlying data driving the market. I have been saying for weeks now that the market has been under the wrath of investors’ emotions for a LONG time.


Yes, the SPY is up 0.76% YTD, but in general, there is no data behind this to support the continued increase in price. In fact, if you take a look at the YTD rankings our model has attributed to the SPY, you’ll notice that for the past 10 days, we have been sitting in the “hold” and “sell” categories, and remain in a “sell” regime.


The other thing our model doesn’t like right now? Bonds.


Here is a look at the past 3 months of ratings from the macro indicator on bonds… YIKES.


We have remained in a state of “hold” to “strong sell” for the past 3 months in a row. Now, we have seen TLT start to rise in the past few days, but in general, the model has been keeping us far, far, far away from bonds.


Now, let’s talk about something that our model has been loving… gold.


Over the past three months, we have seen “Strong Buy” and “Buy” ratings on gold almost exclusively. Over those 3 months, GLD is up 6%. If you follow the “Weekly Allocations” you’ll recall that our model has been allocating over 80% of the portfolio to GLD since the beginning of this year.


Total Macro Portfolio Returns


Okay, now you kinda have a feel of the general macro environment. Bonds and equities are underperformers and rated “sell” showing signs of a “risk off” regime. Gold and commodities on the other hand are showing signs of risk on and have taken over the allocation YTD. So, if you were keeping up with all of this and rebalancing your portfolio every Friday in accordance with our allocations how would your portfolio be performing YTD?


I started a new account on SOFI that I am using to track the performance of the Macro indicators and the allocations between GLD, SPY, and TLT, and YTD we are up 5.69%.


I will be adding the Macro Portfolio to the “Portfolios” page of the website soon!


Weekly Roundup


What the sector chart says


Returns this week were brought to you by steadier, cash-generating sectors. Basic Materials rose +3.32%, Energy +3.13%, and Utilities +3.05%. Real Estate added +2.11% and Industrials +1.82%. When investors move toward these groups, faster-growing areas usually cool off — Technology -0.61%, Healthcare -1.32%, Communication Services -0.10% did exactly that. Rates dipped midweek and finished a bit higher, with the 10-year Treasury near 4.23% on Friday. Mortgage rates around 6.06% helped housing activity. Gold set fresh records (a signal that investors wanted some safety), while oil near $59–61 modestly helped consumers and transportation. Semiconductors improved late in the week on stronger guidance from Taiwan Semiconductor; big banks had mixed days as headlines circled credit-card interest caps and Federal Reserve independence.


Outlier events


Nationwide Verizon outage with $20 credits. Negative for Verizon in the short term due to service issues and bill credits; limited competitive spillover.


Proposed one-year 10% cap on credit-card APRs. Negative for ma...