'Do your homework and start allocating' - Ronald-Peter Stoeferle on a commodity upswing

Описание: Gold will go up in 2024, but it will be a slow climb, said Ronald-Peter Stoeferle, managing partner, Incrementum AG.

In mid-January Stoeferle spoke to Kitco Mining at the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2024.

The precious metal hit an all-time high of $2,135 an ounce in December, but Stoeferle said gold will likely trade sideways for the first part of the year due to the Federal Reserve being more hawkish on rate cuts, and the bounce in US bond yields. His forecast is $2,300-2400.

He noted it’s unusual for the gold price to be trading so high, considering that interest rates are above 5%, inflation is coming down, and real rates “are actually exploding”.

“I would have said gold should be trading at $1,600, so that means from my point of view the gold playbook has changed.”

Central bank buying was one of gold’s key drivers in 2023, and Stoeferle expects that to continue. However, he said gold is gaining importance due to the de-dollarization trend.

“Gold has always been something that is just lying around in the basement of the central banks,” he said. “Now it is really becoming something that is much more valued as a dollar hedge, as a means to diversify, as a reserve asset without any counterparty risk, a very liquid reserve asset, so I think this is really important when it comes to the price of gold.”

As for the commodities complex, Stoeferle said investors haven’t been this underweighted in commodities versus bonds since the end of 2008. “Now’s really the time to do your homework to start allocating,” he said.

Coverage of the Vancouver Resource Investment Conference 2024 was sponsored by Snowline Gold.

0:00 Is 2024 the year for gold?
6:36 Fed rate cuts
9:42 The Fed and the election
11:13 De-dollarization & central bank buying
16:33 Gold and conflict
18:47 Gold equities
20:39 Uranium
22:07 What to watch
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