Morning Market Brief | Feb 11, 2026 | Phantom Jobs: Up to 900k Could Be Revised Away

Описание: Markets & Economy
• Retail Sales Stalling: U.S. retail sales were flat in December, missing expectations and signaling that high borrowing costs and inflation are weighing on consumers. This data fueled a rally in bonds as yields fell, with investors betting the Fed may need to cut rates to support the economy.
• Market Rotation: The stock market is witnessing a rotation. The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit fresh record highs, driven by defensive sectors like utilities and real estate, while tech-heavy indices like the Nasdaq and S&P 500 faced pressure. Investors are moving away from "Big Tech" software names toward cyclical and defensive stocks.
• Fed Policy Outlook: Federal Reserve officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack and Dallas Fed President Lorie Logan, signaled that interest rates may need to remain steady for "some time." They cited persistent inflation risks and a need for more evidence that price pressures are easing before cutting rates.
• Alphabet’s Century Bond: Google’s parent company, Alphabet, issued a rare 100-year bond as part of a $32 billion debt sale. The move is intended to lock in capital to fund its massive infrastructure buildout for artificial intelligence.
Corporate Earnings & Movers
• Robinhood (HOOD): Shares tumbled approximately 8-10% in after-hours trading after fourth-quarter revenue missed analyst estimates. The company reported a slowdown in crypto revenue and net deposit growth, though executives remain optimistic about future product expansions like prediction markets.
• Ford (F): The automaker reported a mixed quarter with an adjusted EPS miss ($0.13 vs $0.18 expected). The electric vehicle division (Model e) posted a staggering loss of $4.7 billion for the year and is not expected to be profitable until at least 2029. However, the stock saw some after-hours support due to strong guidance for 2026 and robust hybrid sales.
• Spotify (SPOT): Stock surged nearly 17-20%, marking its biggest intraday gain in years. The company reported record user growth (adding 38 million users in Q4) and improved margins, successfully monetizing its subscriber base despite price hikes.
• Lyft (LYFT): Shares sank roughly 14% after issuing weak guidance for the first quarter, despite announcing a new share buyback program.
• Marriott (MAR): Shares hit record highs as the hotel giant reported strong demand for luxury and international travel. CEO Anthony Capuano highlighted a "K-shaped" economy where wealthy consumers continue to prioritize travel experiences despite broader economic tightening.
• Quest Diagnostics (DGX): Stock reached record highs after raising its 2026 outlook. Growth is being driven by consumer health testing and new blood-based biomarkers for early Alzheimer's detection.
Cryptocurrency
• Bitcoin Correction: Bitcoin prices slipped below $69,000, down significantly from recent highs. Analysts are debating whether this is a new "Crypto Winter" or a healthy correction. Data shows retail investors have been buying the dip, while larger institutional holders ("whales") and ETFs have seen net outflows.
• Industry Outlook: David Marcus, CEO of Lightspark and former PayPal president, reiterated his long-term bullish stance on Bitcoin as a hedge against currency debasement. He also critiqued PayPal for losing its innovative edge.
• Prediction Markets: There is growing interest in prediction markets (like Polymarket and Kalshi), with traditional finance firms like Jump Trading stepping in to provide liquidity. Robinhood is also looking to expand into this space.
U.S. Politics & Policy
• Shutdown Threat: A partial government shutdown involving the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) looms with a Friday deadline. Democrats rejected a White House counter-proposal regarding ICE (Immigration and Customs Enforcement) reforms, demanding stricter oversight such as prohibiting masks for agents and requiring warrants for raids.
• Lutnick & Epstein: Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick faced intense questioning on Capitol Hill regarding his past associations with Jeffrey Epstein. Lutnick denied any wrongdoing, stating he only met Epstein a few times over many years.
• Critical Minerals: In a move to reduce reliance on China, U.S. Antimony and America's Gold and Silver Corp announced a joint venture to process antimony (crucial for military munitions) in Idaho. This aligns with Washington's push to secure domestic supply chains for critical minerals.