Expect Tesla and SpaceX to Eventually Merge, Says Dan Ives

Описание: Dan Ives, Global Head of Tech Research at Wedbush Securities, discusses the SpaceX-xAI merger and what he calls the 'software Armageddon.'

By many counts, SpaceX is the most successful venture Elon Musk ever started. The rocket maker revolutionized the space industry, built a multibillion-dollar business fueled by lucrative government contracts and a growing satellite communications network, and still has few credible competitors.
XAI Holdings is not that. The company, which owns Musk’s AI startup and the social network X, is saddled with billions of dollars in debt, besieged by well-funded rivals and faces mounting regulatory scrutiny after its chatbot spread sexualized images. It also brings in scant revenue, compared to SpaceX. Much of what it does generate comes from Musk’s other businesses.
Over the past year, xAI has been buoyed by a web of contracts and investments between Musk’s ventures, with echoes of the circular deals underpinning the wider AI sector – except in this case, these arrangements are strictly within the business empire of the world’s richest man. Now, xAI is getting its largest lift to date, courtesy of Musk’s crown jewel, SpaceX.
On Monday, Musk announced plans to merge the two companies in a deal that values the enlarged entity at $1.25 trillion ahead of an expected IPO. To some industry watchers, the combination appears poised to create a juggernaut that appeals to a broader swath of Wall Street investors, and possibly spurs a sci-fi-sounding race to put AI data centers in space. To others, including some insiders, the acquisition looks less like a merger than a rescue mission.
It wouldn’t be the first time one Musk venture has come to the aid of another. X, formerly known as Twitter, was performing so badly after Musk’s $44 billion acquisition that the Wall Street banks that helped finance the deal couldn’t get the debt off their books. Last March, Musk merged X with xAI to value the social network at $45 billion, including debt, even though X’s revenue was down by nearly half from the buyout in 2022. X is still paying tens of millions or more every month to cover the interest on its roughly $12.5 billion in debt commitments.
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