Riot's new $28B Corsicana lease, explained $RIOT

Описание:   / arrowkeep  
— Riot Platforms has signed about $38 billion of AI data center leases across 1,151 megawatts, including a new $28 billion, 910 MW lease at Corsicana with Anthropic. Yet the stock trades at 7.8x trailing revenue, against a peer median of about 16x.

In this video: the new Corsicana deal in detail, the quarterly cash rent from all three leases, where Riot sits in the AI value chain, five years of financials, the Q3 2026 beat, how the $7.6–7.8B build gets funded, valuation versus peers, three scenarios, the risks and the next catalysts.

Data as of the 3 November 2026 close; Q3 2026 results and the Corsicana lease published 4 November 2026.

Chapters
0:00 Intro & disclaimer
0:11 The set-up
0:41 A decade in five steps
1:16 Three businesses
1:40 The new Corsicana deal
2:38 Contracted cash by quarter
3:19 Where Riot sits
3:54 Five years of numbers
4:17 The quarter just reported
4:47 Funding the build
5:16 Valuation versus peers
5:56 Three scenarios
6:28 What can go wrong
7:06 What to watch
7:25 Bottom line

Key numbers
• Price $14.02 · EV ~$5.3B · 7.8x LTM revenue ($676M)
• Contracted: ~$38B, 1,151 IT MW (AMD 50 MW, Rockdale AI lab 191 MW, Corsicana 910 MW)
• Corsicana: 15 years, ~$28B ($54B with extensions), $130/kW-month +3%/yr, ~99% NOI margin, ~$1.8B avg annual NOI (guided)
• Contracted cash rent: ~$483M a quarter from Q3 2028, vs $181M total revenue in Q3 2026 (estimate from disclosed terms)
• Q3 2026: revenue $181.4M vs $160.2M consensus; EPS $0.01 vs −$0.35
• Build: $7.6–7.8B, 80–90% project debt, no equity planned; net debt peaks ~$6.0B in 2028 (our model)
• Scenarios (12 months): bear $4.09 · base $27.19 · bull $47.75 · weighted $26.56 (+89%) · Street median $28.25

Sources: Riot Q3 2026 Form 10-Q, press release and earnings deck (4 Nov 2026); Riot 8-Ks (Jan, Aug, Nov 2026); S&P Capital IQ; Wood Mackenzie; ERCOT; Arrowkeep analysis.

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