A New Iron Curtain? Polish-Ukrainian-Belarusian Border Tensions & Security Implications

Описание: December 5, 2025 CREEES talk given by Karol Kujawa, War Studies University in Warsaw.

Talk Overview:
This presentation will analyze the situation on Poland’s border with Ukraine and Belarus during the period of Russian aggression against Ukraine. In the initial phase of the invasion, the Polish–Ukrainian border remained open, enabling millions of Ukrainians to flee Russian aggression. As a result of the open border, the inflow of low-priced Ukrainian grain raised concerns among parts of the Polish agricultural sector, increasing political tensions between Warsaw and Kyiv, ultimately leading to the tightening of border controls. By contrast, the Polish–Belarusian border became the target of hybrid operations conducted by Belarus, which deliberately facilitated the flow of irregular migrants into the territory of the European Union. In response, the Polish authorities launched the “Eastern Shield Project”, aimed at constructing a system of fortifications and reinforcements. Combining quantitative techniques with qualitative methods, the analysis suggests that the Polish borders with Ukraine and Belarus may evolve into a form of a “new Iron Curtain,” which could effectively turn Poland’s eastern frontier into a dividing line between two opposing geopolitical worlds.

About the Speaker:
Karol Kujawa, Ph.D., specializes in security studies with a focus on Central and Eastern Europe as well as the Middle East. Currently, he serves as an expert at the Academic Center for Strategic Analysis (ACAS) at the War Studies University in Warsaw, a think tank founded by the Polish Ministry of Defense, and as an assistant professor at WSB University in Poland. Previously, Kujawa worked as an analyst for Turkey and the Balkans at the Polish Institute of International Affairs (PISM), a government think tank in Warsaw. He has also worked at foreign universities, including the Europa-Universität Viadrina in Frankfurt (Oder), Germany, and Çanakkale Onsekiz Mart University in Turkey. Kujawa, a two-time fellow of the Kosciuszko Foundation in New York, conducted doctoral and postdoctoral research at the University of Pittsburgh (REEES) and the University of Illinois, Urbana-Champaign (REEEC). His research internships include stays at the Institut National des Langues et Civilisations Orientales in Paris (2005), Zagreb University (2005), Mersin University (2003), Da Nang University (2019), the University of Potsdam (2021), Rwanda University (2022), Universidad Tecnológica del Perú (2024), etc. He is the author of numerous scholarly publications published by BRILL and Peter Lang, and has participated in international research projects funded by the European Commission. Fluent in English, German, Turkish, and Croatian.