Is Nashville On Fire or Cooling Down?

Описание: Is Nashville On Fire or Cooling Down?

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Steve Jolly
http://MovingToNash.com​
📥 [email protected]
📱d: 615-257-9996

Today I want to talk with you about the market and answer this question…

Is Nashville on fire or cooling down?

In addition, I’m going to give you a quick update on the Nashville market and the one statistic that you need to watch that hardly anyone is talking about.

And, you won’t believe how fast average prices are growing.

It’s staggering.

Now, Let’s get to business.

If you’ve been following the market in Nashville lately, you know that the story of 2021 has been Supply Vs. Demand.

The story actually started in the ashes of the Great Recession. At that time, Nashville had so much new construction and lots in the run up to the crash, that it took years to work ourselves out of that hole.

For several years after that banks were reluctant to lend to developers. Cities and counties added additional layers of regulation to slow and even deter growth. And homeowners started to stay in their homes almost 50% longer.

All this resulted in not enough homes to keep up with the demand.

And at the same time, Nashville was coming into the limelight. 2017 saw Nashville proclaimed as the “It” city and #1 real estate market in the Nation.

Fortunately for us, that growth wasn’t a fluke and soon everyone wanted a part of Music City.

That leads us to where we are today.

This chart shows the number of listings per month over the last year in blue. And the number of sales per month in green.

In a balanced market, homes take about 3 months to sell. In that market, you expect to see significantly more homes listed than close in any given month.

When homes are selling quickly, like they are now, the number of sales per month gets much closer to the number of listings.

This literally puts the squeeze on buyers.

OUCH!

Here’s the squeeze in real-time. This chart shows the difference between monthly sales and listings.

Notice this time last year, monthly sales were approx. 75% of the listings. For every 3 homes sold, four homes came on the market to replace them.

In a balanced market, this ratio of sales to listing each month would be somewhere in the 60 percent range.

For the last few months, we’ve been above 90% and even close to 100%.

It’s impossible to grow sales when you have nothing to sell.

Here’s what that does to prices.

The median list price has climbed from $335k last July to nearly $400k today. That’s more than $5,000 per month.

Or an annual return of 18.5%.

That’s a beautiful number for homeowners, but unsustainable in the long run.

In addition to people paying more for a home, they’ve also changed their habits when it comes to list price.

In a balanced market, you expect to pay 98% of list price on average for a home.

In this market, the squeeze has people paying more than 102% of list price on average.

One last thing I want to show you is the maximum price paid for a home each month, as a percentage of the list price.

Notice it’s been all over the board over the last year. Sure there have been more listings sold over list price lately, but many of those big numbers may have more to do with the speed of the market.

When something sells for 50% or more over list, it’s hard for me to believe that it was priced correctly from the start.

No one knows when the market will peak. However, I would bet that it’s right around the time interest rates start going up.

And that’s inevitable.

If you want to know what your home might sell for in this market, just give me a call or text at 615.257.9996. I’d love to give you a quick and easy price opinion on your home.

This wraps up the market update. For the next few weeks, we are gonna bust some of the myths in real estate. It’s gonna be fun.

Peace & Love y’all.