30 DAYS TO COMEX FORCE MAJEURE: March Silver Crisis Timeline (What Happens When Vaults Hit Zero)

Описание: 30 days. That’s the countdown.

Because by February 26, 2026 (First Notice Day) the COMEX silver market hits a point where the math either works… or it doesn’t.

Right now (as of January 14, 2026), COMEX shows roughly 123M oz of registered silver—the “deliverable” category. Meanwhile, the March contract open interest represents ~507M oz of potential demand.

In a normal market, only 5–10% stands for delivery.
But this is not a normal market anymore.

We’ve got:

Unusual January delivery behavior (a “quiet” month acting like a major month)

A blowout physical premium (East vs West pricing stress)

A multi-year structural deficit draining inventories

Rising retail premiums and tightening availability

And the exact setup that forces one question:

What happens when COMEX vaults get pushed to zero?

In this video, I walk through a 30-day crisis timeline—day-by-day—showing the key checkpoints between now and First Notice Day, and the three outcomes the exchange faces if delivery demand comes in high.

Inside this breakdown:

✅ Registered vs Eligible (and why “total inventory” is misleading)
✅ The delivery math: what 20%, 30%, or 40% standing actually means
✅ The legal escape hatch: Force Majeure and “alternative settlement”
✅ What happens to paper silver vs physical silver if delivery credibility breaks
✅ How exchanges behave under stress (case studies from other metals crises)
✅ A realistic best case / median case / worst case roadmap
✅ The exact signals to watch daily Dun: inventory, withdrawals, margin hikes, premiums, and OI

The core idea:

If the COMEX can’t source enough metal, it doesn’t “explode like a movie”…

It changes the rules.

And the moment that happens, the market can split into two prices:

Paper price (what contracts settle at)

Physical price (what real metal costs to buy)

This is scenario analysis, not a guarantee.
But if you hold silver—or you’re planning to buy—this is the timeline you can’t ignore.

Subscribe + turn on notifications because from here to Feb 26, the data updates daily—and the story changes fast.

Disclaimer

This video is for educational and entertainment purposes only, not financial advice. I am not a financial advisor. Markets are risky and you can lose money. Some values discussed are based on publicly available data and scenario modeling, and outcomes may differ from projections. Verify information from official sources before making financial decisions.