The cost of leaving: What happens to the UK's block grants?

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On September 14 the First Ministers of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland sat down in Cardiff with the president of Sinn Fein and signed one page. It asks London to prepare for constitutional change, and it says there could be no clearer sign that Westminster's time is coming to an end. This video is about the money underneath that sentence.

The United Kingdom is held together by a check: about 45 billion pounds a year to Scotland, 20 billion to Wales, 18 billion to Northern Ireland. Scotland spends 22,200 pounds per person against a UK average of 19,500, and runs a deficit of 10.9 percent of its economy. For decades that was London's answer to independence: you cannot afford it. Then Brexit overruled Scotland's 62 percent remain vote and Northern Ireland's 55.8, the goods border moved into the Irish Sea, trade on the island of Ireland went from 2 billion euros a year to 17 billion without a single vote, and in May the independence parties won in Cardiff and Edinburgh at the same time. A draft referendum bill is written with the date left blank. The new prime minister's answer is no. And inflation at 3.5 percent, growth at half a percent and a falling pound make the check harder to write every year.

Subscribe for weekly economic breakdowns, and comment below with whether you think the four nations are better off together.

In this video, I'll break down:

The Cardiff memorandum and the Westminster line

The Barnett formula and spending per head

Scotland's 25.3 billion pound deficit and the old “you can't afford it” answer

How Brexit changed the deal for Scotland and Northern Ireland

The Irish Sea border and the trade that moved south

Wales: three quarters of UK output, Port Talbot, and the May election

Scotland's 57 seats, the 73-member independence majority, the draft bill

Why 2 billion became 17 billion with no vote, and what it means for the United States

0:00 Four signatures in Cardiff
0:49 The check that holds the UK together
2:05 June 2016: the deal changes
3:10 Northern Ireland and the Irish Sea border
4:05 Side Hustle Engine
4:15 Wales: what do we get for staying
5:14 May 2026: Plaid 43, SNP 57
6:20 London says no
7:12 The Irish precedent: 2 billion to 17
8:03 What this means for America