What is Energy and Economic Warfare? //

Описание: Dr. Rebecca Nicholson converses with Ade Rudd, Director of Blekking Strategic Communications and former Military Deception officer for the British army and NATO. The views expressed are those of Mr. Rudd.

0:00 Economic and Energy Warfare explained
Fissure, fracture, exploit in 5 key areas –
1. Political operations,
2. Information operations,
3. Kinetic violence,
4. Economic & Energy warfare,
5. Lawfare

Economic and Energy Warfare explained:
How Russia exploits it foreign and domestic policies to disrupt NATO and the EU. Trade that Russia provides is oil and gas. Turns gas off, Increases or decreases to leverage favors. Ukraine increased price during harsh winter. Decreased the price to Belarus, who then agreed to have their fighter jets on borders. Russia alters price of oil and gas for favors and leverage. Geirhouse Shcroeder Sponsoring sporting events.

TANAP – Trans Anatolian Pipeline, Gas pipeline through Turkey. Turned off pipeline when plane got shot down, turned back on when they apologized and searched for the pilot. How to combat Russia through foreign policy. Invest in gas and oil infrastructure. Break monopoly and gain energy independence - Latvia, Lithuania, Estonia, Poland.

Elections, migration, rise of populism/nationalism. Weak coalition governments, irregular migration, modern slavery. Angela Merkel’s Open-Door policy. Migrations. Workers can travel and work throughout EU. Fewer blue-collar jobs available to Europeans

8:00 Why Russian uses Economics and Energy as a weapon. Russia does this to weaken the EU and NATO. Sees them as a threat but cannot lash out economically. Feels threatened but cannot lash out militarily. Uses Political Operations - Pervasive and aggressive information campaign. Economics / energy as a weapon. Anonymous donors to alt right political groups. Leads back to the Kremlin. Front National – receive anonymous donors

9:00 Agents of Influence. Funding of political groups, Use of front groups, and use of agents of influence. Overt tactics – sponsoring sports and conferences. Twinning between political parties and towns, economic assistance, military agreements. Weakens the political structure and weakens the political environment. Weakens political leaders, like Teresa May negotiating Brexit.
Makes other countries wonder the value of joining weak coalition like EU or NATO. Weakened EU and NATO gives Russia gets freedom of movement in its “near abroad”

10:30 What it looks like when Russia funds a group. Uses social media and television stations to amplify the anti-migration feelings across Italy. Italian migration, bears the brunt of African migrants. Amplified anti-immigration. People in hard financial times seek political alternatives. Use of information.

Needed a change because the status quo was dysfunctional. Communist part – extreme left, Socialist Party – extreme right. Socialist rise. Happened that socialists were physically stronger than opposing party. Beat them up, destroyed their rallies and destroyed their printing presses. Current parallel. People being governed from Brussels. Loss of jobs. Influx of migration. Weak leaders. Idea that immigrants want their jobs.

14:18 Political Targeting of the working class. Working Class vs. Middle class. Working class don’t matter in the US - Idea that people “should” aspire to be middle class. Extreme parties on right and left target working class. Working class resonance with Trump. Different frames of reference in political targeting.

18:29 Fissure – Fracture – Exploit: Mistrust of Government is exploited. Russia does not want strong neighbors. Alt right, while not ideologically aligned, serves Russia’s interests. Chasing ghosts – EU and NATO spend money. No single voice of NATO. No common language.

22:15 Chasing Ghosts: Never look where Russia is pointing. Look at it through Russian eyes: Russia feels threatened. Cannot lash out militarily. Seeks to weaken EU and NATO. Does so by draining defense funds. Get NATO involved in Chasing Ghosts: NATO chasing ghosts. Soviet technique of “active measures”. Invests in information infrastructure. Financial approximation. NATO response. Western military division. NATO response - troops tied up where there is no threat. 5000 Rapid Deployment Forces. Q: What is the relative financial investment of each side? Cost of presence for 5 years. Resources cannot be used elsewhere. Never look where Russia is pointing. Annexation of Crimea. Russia keeps winning small victories whilst draining NATO resources. Not Article 5 Act of War. List of countries Russia has annexed

29:31 Weaponized Social media as Strategic Communications. How social media manipulation works. Perception of credibility, or perception of being discredited. Gerbel: “If you say the lie enough times it becomes the truth”. Way to defeat Russia is to understand a. Russia feels threatened; and b. Energy is their main lever, so decrease their ability to control through it