Trump Strikes Iran: What This Means | The Long Game

Описание: Joint U.S.-Israel strikes on Iran, Iran’s retaliation across the region, War Powers Act debate on Capitol Hill. Jake Sullivan and Jon Finer went live on Subtack to break it all down: What we know so far, what we don’t know, and the biggest questions that will shape what happens next.

Topics of discussion include:
What’s the end game? If the U.S. is entering a war, the public needs a clear account of why, what success looks like, and how this strategy plausibly achieves it.
Is there an imminent threat to the U.S.? Based on the administration’s own claims, there isn’t one from the nuclear program.
Why didn’t the administration seek Congressional authorization? Even President George W. Bush got authorization for the Iraq War.
What to watch for in the coming days as details firm up: To what extent have Iran’s capabilities been degraded? Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz or otherwise disrupt oil shipping infrastructure? Is Ayatollah Khamenei alive?
The long game questions: What are the second-and third order effects? Will this instability lead to increased risks of terrorism, displacement, and downstream political consequences as we saw with the Arab Spring, the Syrian Civil War, and the Iraq War? What’s the eventual off ramp for the U.S.? What actually happens inside Iran? If the current leadership is toppled, who takes over? And, how is China seeing this – does this create new risks with respect to Taiwan?

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This conversation was recorded live on Substack: https://staytuned.substack.com/

Chapters:
0:00 - Intro: The Long Game Substack Live
0:42 - Breaking News: U.S. and Israeli Strikes on Iran
2:00 - The Fog of War and Information Uncertainty
3:48 - Questioning the Necessity of the War
7:17 - Regime Change vs. Military Force
9:50 - Five Critical Questions for the Coming Days
13:10 - Long-term Strategic Risks and Global Consequences
21:03 - What's Next on The Long Game Podcast