Can We Reduce Uncertainty in Himalayan Streamflow Models? | Hindi

Описание: Curve number modi cations and parameterization sensitivity analysis for
reducing model uncertainty in simulated and projected stream ows in a
Himalayan catchment

Authors: Vishal Singh, Manish Kumar Goyal

Climate plays a fundamental role in controlling ecosystem processes, species distribution, and water availability, particularly in snow- and glacier-dominated Himalayan catchments. Modeling hydrological processes in such complex terrains remains challenging and requires robust calibration, sensitivity, and uncertainty analysis to support sustainable watershed management.

This video presents a detailed assessment of streamflow and water yield simulation in a Himalayan catchment using a modified Curve Number (CN) approach within the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) framework. Streamflow and water yield were simulated at sub-catchment scale over a century, incorporating key ecosystem drivers such as land use/land cover and soil characteristics.

Model performance was evaluated using the coefficient of determination (R²) and Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Uncertainty in simulated streamflow was quantified using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) and Parametric Solution (ParaSol) optimization techniques. A parameter-based sensitivity analysis was conducted to identify the most influential calibration parameters.

To assess climate change impacts, daily temperature and precipitation were statistically downscaled from CMIP5 Global Climate Models under different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios. These projections were used to analyze future changes in streamflow and water yield across multiple sub-catchments for the period 1991–2100.

Results indicate substantial temporal and spatial variability in streamflow and water yield, with a consistent increase in precipitation, water yield, and streamflow at major outlets. The magnitude and percentage change analyses reveal that Himalayan catchments are highly vulnerable to hydrological changes, which could significantly disrupt ecosystem services.

This study highlights the importance of improved parameterization and uncertainty reduction in hydrological modeling for climate-resilient ecosystem and water resource management in the Himalayas.

DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.ecoleng.2017.0...

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