Inside the Budget: Secrets, Strategies & Surprises with Adam Smith

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This week on The Art of Investing, Rich McDonald, Mark “Spice” Holden and Chris Fellingham are joined by Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, for the most inside-Treasury Budget preview we’ve ever recorded.
With Rachel Reeves’ first Budget just days away, Adam explains how decisions really get made — the politics, pressure, fiscal rules, OBR scrutiny and the moments where things nearly go off the rails.

Meanwhile, markets have been wild:
• Bitcoin drops 35% from the highs
• Nvidia posts one of the biggest earnings beats in history
• The Fed cools December cut expectations
• Long gilts sell off on credibility worries
• And Rich… turns fully bullish


This Week’s Highlights
💥 Crypto Crash: Bitcoin down another 10%; record ETF outflows
📈 Nvidia Surge: A huge quarter steadies the NASDAQ
🏦 Fed Cuts on Hold: Shutdown delays key data
🇬🇧 Gilt Volatility: Income-tax U-turn sends yields 30bp higher
⚡ AI Power Rush: 10 new US nuclear reactors approved
🥊 Portfolio Debate: Rich buys the dip; Spice agrees; CJ isn’t sure
🎩 Fantasy Budget: Adam, CJ, Spice & Rich pitch their own Budgets


Special Guest - Adam Smith
Adam Smith, former Special Advisor to the Chancellor, reveals the real mechanics behind the Budget:
📊 The Scorecard — every tax & spend decision in one spreadsheet
🧮 Fiscal Rules — how they’re bent, stretched and stress-tested
🏛️ OBR Checks — what survives scrutiny (and what doesn’t)
🔥 Mini-Budget Lessons — why credibility beats headlines
🔮 Next Week’s Budget — freezes, pension tweaks, revenue raisers
Plus: the late-night calls, panic moments and political chaos behind every fiscal event.


Portfolio Snapshot
Weekly performance: – 2.6%
Total return since inception: +7.20%

Top Performers:
🥇 iShares MSCI India ETF – +1.07%
🥈 Cash – +0.08%
🥉 iShares UK Gilts 0–5yr ETF – –0.13%

Underperformers:
🪙 VanEck Crypto & Blockchain ETF – –14.74%
🇯🇵 iShares Nikkei 225 ETF – –4.94%
🇺🇸 iShares Russell 2000 ETF – –4.27%

Actions Taken:
Adding to portfolio:
+2.5% NASDAQ 100
+2.5% VanEck Crypto ETF


What You’ll Learn:
How Budgets are really built
Why credibility matters more than the policy
Which tax levers actually raise money
What drives crypto deleveraging
Why AI infrastructure is a new macro theme
How markets price Budget moves instantly
Why too much cash destroys long-term returns



📈 Download the full Portfolio Performance Slides
View the portfolio breakdown: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1CK56...

📧 Get in touch: [email protected]
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Disclaimer:
This podcast is provided for educational and informational purposes only. The content presented is not intended as personal investment advice or a recommendation to buy, sell, or hold any particular securities or investments. All discussions regarding the model portfolio are illustrative and for educational purposes.

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