May 2025 Markets & Economy

Описание: In our latest Market & Economy Update, Jarrod Musick and Tim Doyle explore how trade policy shifts are influencing key economic indicators. Key takeaways include:

Tariff Whiplash: Tariff rates between the U.S. and China spiked to historic highs this spring before recently pulling back, creating some market confusion and supply chain stress.

Market Rebound: After sharp declines in March and early April, major indexes have appeared to rebound. The S&P 500 is up nearly 2% year-to-date, as of this recording.

Volatility Down, Uncertainty Up: Market volatility has dropped, but investors are still making some big assumptions about future trade policy.

Q1 GDP Contraction: A surge in imports ahead of tariffs led to negative GDP growth—likely a temporary blip, but something we’re watching.

Inflation & Labor: Inflation remains muted for now, and the labor market is holding steady with around 7.1M job openings and 4.1% unemployment.

Tax Legislation on the Move: Early drafts of a new tax bill suggest the potential for larger deficits ahead, which could pressure bond markets and long-term interest rates.

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