🔴 TROPICAL UPDATE LIVE: CATASTROPHIC Major Hurricane Melissa Likely...

Описание: After the previous advisory, the last couple of aircraft fixes from the C-130 indicated that Melissa likely completed a center
relocation as a very large burst of deep convection with cloud tops below -90C rotated up-shear of the center. This evolution was also nicely captured on the GOES-19 mesoscale sector, where GLM lightning flashes, which had been parked down-shear earlier in the morning, started to rotate cyclonically along Melissa's eastern flank, indicating convection was finally starting to wrap around the low-level vortex. A GMI microwave pass at 1527 UTC also hinted at a nascent inner core feature on the 37 GHz channel as the convective burst wrapped around the center. Before the Air Force Hurricane Hunters left Melissa, they measured a peak flight level wind of 59 kt, and a pressure down to 997 mb, supporting the 50 kt intensity
for the intermediate advisory. However, given the improvement of Melissa's structure since that time, the initial intensity is being raised to 55 kt for this advisory, in best agreement with the T3.5/55-kt Dvorak intensity estimate provided by TAFB. Another Air Force Reserve and a NOAA-P3 reconnaissance mission will be in the storm tonight to provide more data on Melissa's intensity and structure.

Discussion provided by Forecaster Papin at the NHC

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