UKRAINE Under Pressure to SUBMIT /Lt Col Daniel Davis & Col Jacques Baud

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Who Wants to End the Russia-Ukraine War — and Who Doesn’t

The discussion centers on a leaked/drafted 28-point U.S. peace proposal for ending the Russia-Ukraine war. The plan appears to have been shaped after a private August meeting in Anchorage between Trump and Putin, and elements of it align with what Sergey Lavrov has since hinted at.

What the Plan Contains (Key Points)

Full recognition of Donetsk & Luhansk oblasts as Russian territory (their entire political borders).

Partial recognition of Zaporizhzhia & Kherson as Russian only up to the current battle lines (not full oblasts).

Ukraine formally abandons NATO membership.

Ukraine legally acknowledges the territorial changes (“de jure” recognition).

This is portrayed as a compromise between:

Keith Kellogg’s idea of drawing borders along frontline positions.

Putin’s demand for full oblast borders to be recognized.

Who Supports the Peace Plan

The United States (Trump administration)

Trump’s team (Rubio Witkoff, Jared Kushner) drafted the plan.

It was reportedly developed with input from a Kremlin-linked intermediary.

Both the Biden and Trump State Departments previously acknowledged Ukraine would not join NATO, meaning parts of the plan align with longstanding private U.S. assessments.

Russia

The territorial arrangement partly mirrors what Russia sought in the 2022–2024 negotiations.

Recognizing the territories and blocking NATO membership satisfies Russia’s core demands.

Who Opposes the Peace Plan

Ukraine

Strong immediate rejection.

Cannot accept formal loss of major territorial regions.

Sees the political concessions as incompatible with a “just and lasting peace.”

European Union / NATO Leadership

EU Commission President and others are publicly opposed.

Their stance: any peace must be “just and lasting,” meaning Ukraine must agree, and Russia must show concessions, which they argue Moscow has not.

The EU’s rejection came very quickly, indicating that Europe does not support the U.S.-drafted terms.

Underlying Theme

Public messaging vs. private reality:

Western public narrative: “Russia doesn’t want peace.”

But actions show resistance from Europe and Ukraine, who reject territorial concessions.

Meanwhile, Russia and the U.S. (at least through this proposed plan) appear more open to a negotiated settlement — because the plan meets Russia's strategic minimums and Washington wants the war resolved.

Larger Context

The West has long known Ukraine would not be accepted into NATO (privately acknowledged since 2022).

The 2008 NATO promise to Ukraine was seen by many insiders as a dangerous symbolic gesture, not a realistic pathway to membership.

This contradiction (publicly “door open,” privately “never”) reflects a shift in Western political culture toward narrative-driven messaging rather than blunt realpolitik.