What 2026 has in store for Wales' political parties

Описание: What 2026 has in store for Wales' political parties

Historic Senedd election could end Labour’s 26-year rule
Wales is heading into a pivotal and potentially historic Senedd election on 7 May 2026, with Labour’s 26-year dominance under serious threat. With major changes to the Welsh parliament and a new proportional representation system, no single party is expected to win a majority, raising the likelihood of minority rule or coalition deals.

Welsh Labour faces one of its toughest tests yet, with First Minister Eluned Morgan seeking to project renewal while defending the party’s record on the NHS, education and internal tensions with the UK Labour government. Plaid Cymru enters the year in a strong position following by-election success and polling momentum, with leader Rhun ap Iorwerth widely seen as a potential first non-Labour first minister.

Reform UK views 2026 as a major opportunity after strong polling in Wales, despite recent controversies and unanswered questions around leadership, candidates and policy. Nigel Farage is expected to play a prominent role in the campaign, with bold pledges likely to dominate headlines.

The Conservatives face an uphill battle as support leaks to Reform, risking a drop from the main opposition to a lower-ranked party. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats and Greens could gain seats under the new voting system, potentially holding the balance of power in a closely divided Senedd.

With campaigning set to intensify, 2026 is shaping up to be one of the most unpredictable and consequential years in Welsh political history.

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