Container Shipping Forecast

Описание: According to the latest Ship Operating Costs Annual Review and Forecast 2022/23 published by global shipping consultancy Drewry, despite some reduction in Covid-19-related costs, global macroeconomic pricing remains unchanged.

Ship operating cost inflation has accelerated in 2022 amid mounting pressure. Average daily operating costs are estimated to have increased by 2.2% in 2022, rising for the fifth consecutive year. This is much smaller than last year’s 1.3% increase and costs before the pandemic.

Most of the increase in operating costs in 2022 came from lubricant costs, which rose 15% due to limited refinery supply and higher oil prices. Marine insurance premiums also increased by an average of 8%.

Maersk reported record third-quarter profit on Wednesday on strong sea freight rates, but pointed to slowing demand. The Danish giant outperformed analyst consensus forecasts of $9.8 billion for $10.9 billion earnings before taxes, depreciation and amortization (EBITDA). The company confirmed its full-year guidance of over $37 billion in adjusted EBITDA and $24 billion in free cash flow.


In its second-quarter report, Maersk noted an impending slowdown in global demand for shipping containers amid worsening consumer confidence and supply chain congestion.

US container imports were down 13% year-on-year but still 7.2% above pre-pandemic levels in 2019. Following the fall in October, September saw a sharp drop of 11% year-on-year. A slowing economy, cutbacks in retail purchases, inflation and rising fuel costs have finally started to catch up with import throughput in U.S. ports, Descartes says in his book. Container imports to the US fell for the first time in August after a record monthly streak that began in August 2020, down 1.8% year-on-year.

China’s imports and exports fell for the first time in over two years, due to global recession, overseas consumers are buying less, and domestic issues such as Covid-zero controls and housing stagnation have hit domestic demand. October exports fell 0.3% year-on-year in dollar terms, well below the economist’s forecast of a 4.5% increase.

Global air cargo industry as volumes declined -8% year over year in October and provided no current signals to indicate an upturn in 2023, as demand fell for the eighth consecutive month, according to new weekly market data from industry analysts CLIVE Data Services, part of Xeneta.