Why 2024 Changed Everything, No More Majority Madness and 42% of Voters Are Up for Grabs

Описание: From the first State of the Nation Breakfast in Pretoria, we unpack why the 2024 election was a reality check for every major party and why that’s (surprisingly) good news for South Africa. The ANC can’t pass reckless laws anymore, the DA looks like a party that “caught the car”, MK is already drifting into COPE-style dysfunction, and the EFF is shrinking into a one-man show.

Most important: 42% of registered voters stayed home and those votes are now the real battleground for 2026 and 2029.

IN THIS EPISODE
• Why coalition gridlock can actually protect SA from “majority madness”
• The ANC’s trauma: no more unchecked power + looming 2027 succession war
• The DA problem: built to oppose… not to govern
• MK’s dysfunction: “COPE 2.0” in the making
• EFF decline: revolution doesn’t sell to most South Africans
• Why voters deserve more respect than “they’ll vote ANC anyway”
• The election math: 40m eligible 30m registered 16m voted 42% stayed home
• The DA’s ceiling: why leadership optics matter if they want growth
• The big risk: Trump-style pressure can trigger protest votes for incumbents
• Foot-and-mouth disaster: economic damage + GNU silence

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Chapters:
0:00 Welcome to the first Pretoria SONA Breakfast
0:55 Thanks + how the morning will run
3:23 400,000 followers: from COVID to live events again
4:10 Why I’m optimistic after 2024
4:58 ANC reality check: majority power is OVER
6:25 ANC succession war: 2027 could be the “last ANC president”
7:55 DA problem: the dog that caught the car
9:02 MK chaos: COPE 2.0 and Zuma without guardrails
12:36 EFF decline: SA isn’t built for revolution
13:51 Why dysfunction is (weirdly) good news: nobody can pass bad laws
15:35 Example of “cockamamie laws”: outcomes-based education + expropriation era
17:00 Gridlock = breathing room for the country
18:07 Citizens understand coalitions now
19:34 Stop saying “they’ll vote ANC anyway”
21:10 The real battleground: non-voters
21:27 The math: turnout collapse + 42% stayed home
22:56 What non-voters want: competence + delivery
23:53 DA ceiling: leadership optics and “read the room”
25:13 Why FF+ isn’t a mass solution
26:28 Steenhuisen to step down: DA opportunity moment
27:47 The wildcard: Trump can accidentally help the ANC
30:20 Economy warning: sabotage incentives + bad policy consensus
36:18 Foot-and-mouth: cost, small businesses hurt, GNU silent