Stephanie Pomboy: Expect GDP To Run Hot...Until Inflation Spikes Or The Markets Plunge

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Macro analyst Stephanie Pomboy shares the top insights fresh on her mind as her Super Terrific Happy Day conference concludes.

One of her top expectations for 2026 is the the Administration will do "whatever it takes" to run the economy hot into the midterms.

That risks a surge in inflation, though, which could anger voters.

A hot economy also doesn't mean the markets will perform similarly. And if they correct materially enough, that will put the brakes on GDP growth.

For her top takeaways from the experts who spoke at her conference, watch this video.

#gdp #inflation #marketcorrection

0:00 - Top Takeaways from the Conference
1:59 - Highlighting Conference Speakers
2:37 - Stephanie's Key Takeaways
3:00 - Pippa Malmgren on Poland's Vibrant Economy
3:26 - Poland's GDP Overtaking Japan's
3:42 - Tom McClellan on Climate Cooling Cycle
4:13 - 60-Year Cycle Impacts on Commodities and Yields
4:35 - Layering Secular Themes like Deglobalization
5:05 - Assembling Economic Puzzle Pieces
5:31 - Luke Gromen's Reaction to Cooling Cycle and Debt
6:01 - Tom Hoenig on Kevin Warsh's Fed Background
7:20 - Warsh as a Hawkish Fed Chair Candidate
7:45 - Systemic Friction Limiting Fed Changes
8:13 - Mike Green's Skeptical View of Warsh
9:26 - Contrasting Opinions on Warsh
10:14 - Administration Policies and Economic Tailwinds
10:56 - Potential "Golden Year" Sugar Rush
11:46 - Stimulus for Bottom of the K-Shaped Recovery
12:08 - Stable Coin Reserve as Helicopter Money Tool
13:26 - Upcoming Stable Coins Discussion with Brent Johnson
14:02 - Stephanie's General Outlook for the Year
15:00 - Near-Term Inflation Risks from Commodities
15:45 - Tax Refunds Boosting Consumer Spending
16:10 - Bond Vigilantes Pushing Yields
16:32 - No Recession Without Major Market Correction
16:52 - Watching Interest Rates Path
17:53 - Retail Gasoline Prices as Confidence Indicator
18:54 - Recommending Conference Replay Purchase
19:04 - Where to Find the Replay
19:52 - Preview of Thoughtful Money Conference
20:06 - Conference Date and Replay Availability
20:34 - Thoughtful Money Faculty Lineup
21:33 - Ticket Purchase Details
21:48 - Early Bird Discount
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