Russia-China-North Korea Relations: Obstacles to a Trilateral Axis

Описание: Russia and China have had diplomatic relations with North Korea and each other for more than 75 years, but Russian and Chinese relations with North Korea could not be more different. North Korea is China’s sole military ally, but since the normalization of ties between Beijing and Seoul, the China-North Korea alliance is really just a scrap of paper. By contrast, Sino-Russian military ties have been deepening though both countries claim they are uninterested in replicating Cold War era alliances and have committed instead to a priority partnership “for the new era." In June 2024, Russia and North Korea signed a strategic partnership agreement with a mutual defense clause. China’s 1961 treaty with North Korea (renewed most recently in 2021) also contains a mutual defense clause, raising questions about the existence of a trilateral axis.

This report examines how the historical experience of trilateralism, reputational concerns, foreign policy considerations, and domestic factors make a new China-Russia-North Korea axis unlikely.

The event will feature a panel discussion with the report author, Elizabeth Wishnick, and Robert Hamilton, Head of Eurasia Research at FPRI.