Weekly Wrap Up March 10, 2026

Описание: Recapping Last Week

• Market Reaction to Middle East Conflict
• Oil prices jumped to the highest level in 2+ years, briefly hitting $92.61 and ending the week up 35%.
• Risk assets weakened globally; international markets were hit harder than U.S. equities.
• Equity Market Performance
• Nasdaq: down just over 1%
• S&P 500: down 2%
• MSCI EAFE & Emerging Markets: both down ~7% due to energy supply risks and a stronger USD.
• Commodities
• Gold: down 2.3%
• Silver: down 10%
• Crude oil: surged on supply disruption fears.
• U.S. Dollar & Yields
• USD rallied sharply, pressuring international stocks and commodities.
• U.S. Treasury yields rose on inflation concerns tied to rising energy prices.
• U.S. Economic Data
• Jobs: Non farm payrolls unexpectedly showed a 92,000 job loss in February; unemployment ticked up to 4.4%.
o Weather and a healthcare worker strike contributed, but broader weakness raised concerns.
• Retail Sales: January declined 0.2% MoM, missing expectations.
• Business Activity: ISM Manufacturing 52.4; ISM Services jumped to 56.1, highest since July 2022.
• Tariffs: Treasury Secretary Bessent signaled a likely move to 15% global tariffs under Section 122.
• International Developments
• Eurozone: Inflation rose—CPI to 1.9% YoY, core to 2.4%; risk of further increases due to energy shock.
• UK: Bond yields surged amid a doubling in gas prices; government acknowledged elevated risks to growth and inflation.
• Australia: Q4 2025 growth accelerated, reigniting inflation concerns and leaving room for more rate hikes.
• China: Manufacturing and services PMIs stayed in contraction, reflecting weak domestic demand.

The Week Ahead

• Middle East War Dominates Markets
• Escalation in the region has overshadowed previous market themes like AI and private credit.
• Energy prices and market volatility surged.
• President Trump’s call for Iran’s “unconditional surrender” signals a potentially prolonged conflict.
• Energy Supply Risks
• Qatar’s energy minister warned producers may need to declare force majeure, potentially shutting down production.
• Oil and gas prices could climb significantly higher if disruptions materialize.
• Federal Reserve Dilemma
• The Fed faces conflicting signals:
o Weak payrolls could imply slower growth.
o Energy-driven inflation risk could push prices higher.
• Traders still expect no rate moves in March or April.
• Odds of a June rate cut moved back above 50% after the weak jobs report.
• Key U.S. Economic Data This Week
• February CPI on Wednesday.
• January PCE Price Index on Friday (delayed release).
• Both expected to remain steady but at levels still too high for the Fed.
• Upcoming data vulnerable to future inflation spikes due to rising energy costs.
• Additional releases:
o 10 and 30 year Treasury auctions
o Housing indicators
o Second estimate of Q4 2025 GDP
o Preliminary consumer sentiment reading
• Corporate Earnings
• Oracle reports quarterly results after the close on Tuesday.
• International Data
• China: inflation update
• UK: monthly GDP figures

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