10.01.2021: Oil prices extend gains - Outlook for Brent, USD/RUB, GOLD.

Описание: Holidays have passed, but the winter season is still cold and expensive for Europe. Natural gas prices continue to rise, resulting in larger heating bills for consumers. Moreover, they are driving oil prices up. Oil has been gaining value since the end of last week. This year, oil prices have already risen above $83 per barrel and are currently hovering around $81.50. Against this background, it seems that the psychological level of $80 per barrel is the height taken by the trading instrument for a long time this time. The oil market outlook has upside potential, but there are no preconditions for a change in the situation. Clearly, as long as natural gas is expensive and in demand, oil prices will continue to advance. Therefore, it can be assumed that growth in the oil market can be limited only by spring and warming. In the meantime, Brent crude oil futures continue to move above the psychological level of $80 per barrel. According to indicators, bullish sentiment prevails in the market. This fact instills confidence in further growth of oil prices. To hit the local high posted on October 25, 2021, oil still needs to consolidate above $84 per barrel. Considering that the trading instrument is highly overbought, it will most likely pull back or enter a correction before extending gains. As for the foreign exchange market, the ruble continues to lose ground against the US dollar. The Russian currency began to suffer steep losses even before the New Year holidays. The dollar/ruble pair kicked off the new trading week with a fairly pronounced pullback. The point is that there were no obvious reasons for the ruble’s sharp depreciation, and the US dollar’s rally can be attributed to speculative moves in thin market conditions. With an increase in trading volume, the instrument returns to its realistic levels. However, when developing a trading strategy, it is worth taking into account external fundamental statistics that have a rather negative impact on the Russian currency. Consequently, the pair will hardly be able to return to the level of 73.50 rubles per dollar, while a scenario suggesting a movement to the 74.50 mark is more likely. From a technical point of view, the dollar/ruble pair is experiencing a technical correction following its rally to 77 rubles per dollar and above. However, the variable support level of 75 rubles per dollar acts as an obstacle to the pair’s further downward movement. If the price fails to fix below this mark on the four-hour chart, its correction will most likely give way to a new round of speculative growth. Meanwhile, gold returned to the 2021 Christmas level at the beginning of the new trading week. The precious metal has been losing value since the middle of last week. It has already broken through the psychological level of $1,800 per ounce. However, given the inverse correlation with the US dollar and the status of a safe-haven asset, its dynamics seem illogical. Such price behavior appears to be highly speculative. The recent rally in the gold market was recorded on holidays and amid the so-called thin market, and ended when major players returned. This may indicate that the real upside potential for gold is really meager. Thus, the most likely scenario implies fluctuations around $1,800 per ounce. After a failed attempt to break through the resistance level of $1,830 per troy ounce, gold slipped below another psychological level of $1,800. Thus, the trading instrument may enter a phase of stagnation in the area of $1,780 and $1,800, which may last several days. The precious metal will gain value only if the price consolidates above the level of $1,800 per troy ounce. As you can see, investors are actively returning to markets. May the new trading week be lucrative for you! See you!

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