Carrier Global (CARR) Stock: 🌬️ The AI Cooling "QuantumLeap" vs. A 40% Residential Plunge

Описание: Carrier Global Q3 2025: Strategic Restructuring Amid Residential Headwinds

Welcome back to Griffonomics, where we conduct financial investigations to define the risk before we look at the reward. Today, we're diving into Carrier Global, ticker CARR.

The Risk: We analyze the "Residential Crisis" as North American unit volumes plummeted roughly 40% in late 2025, a downturn that even failed management's internal forecasting models. We detail the "Inventory North Star" strategy, where Carrier is undershipping demand to force a 30% reduction in channel inventory, sacrificing short-term EPS to right-size the business. We examine the European "Viessmann" headwind, where German heating unit sales hit 15-year lows due to subsidy uncertainty and economic malaise.

The Reward: We define the "Data Center Hyper-Growth" engine, as revenue is expected to double to $1 Billion in 2025 with a massive $900 Million starting backlog already secured for 2026. We highlight the "QuantumLeap" platform, winning outsized market share via proprietary 1.5MW Coolant Distribution Units (CDUs) and high-efficiency maglev chillers. We detail the "Mathematical Bridge" to 2026 growth: even with flat housing volumes, Carrier projects a $0.20 EPS tailwind driven by structural cost-cutting and a new $5 Billion share buyback program.

🎥 Video Chapters
Intro: The "Tale of Two Cities" in Climate Solutions
Data Center Boom: Doubling Revenue and a $900M Backlog
QuantumLeap: Why Liquid Cooling is the Ultimate AI Moat
Residential Reset: Ripping off the Band-Aid on Channel Inventory
Aftermarket Stability: The High-Margin Recurring Revenue Moat
FINAL VERDICT: Is Carrier the Best AI Infrastructure Play in the S&P 500?

#CARR #CarrierGlobal #HVAC #DataCenters #LiquidCooling #QuantumLeap #AIInfrastructure #StockMarket2026 #ValueInvesting #FinancialAnalysis #InvestmentThesis #HousingMarket #EnergyEfficiency


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